regardless of whether or not the Russell rebalance will have a positive or non effect on the pps notwithstanding, if the arikace study comes back positive, we will be handsomely rewarded...if it is bad, regardless of what occurs with the Russell, we are in trouble...everything till arikace news is simply noise
and suppose the news is just OK ..., non superiority or Insmed announces because the results are not quite that compelling, the company announces plans for a trial in the U.S or perhaps........ it is not an on or off possibility and of course there are the pesky shorts . let it snow let it snow...
Arikace cannot possibly not show superiority over TOBI if enough patients have historical TOBI usage. Exclusion criteria only forbids TOBI and Cayston use out 8 wks prior to enrollment. If TOBI returns an improvement more than 2% after the first 28-days, I'll be shocked. In Cayston's trial, which forbid TOBI usage out to 4wks prior, TOBI never performed more than 1%.
The only thing that matters in the upcoming trial is how it performs in maintaining efficacy over 3 cycles. Cayston went form 8% to 2%. If Arikace can illustrate substantial superior tolerance than that, suddenly $200M revenue minimum becomes $400M revenue minimum.
The trial design is the same one Cayston used, and quite frankly, given the nature of patients losing efficacy in TOBI and Cayston over long use, any trial that permits historical usage of TOBI is a slam-dunk.
The other thing to look at are the other endpoints and safety. i'd imagine TOBI's safety profile stays relatively static no matter what the efficacy is, so this trial will still provide useful data with regards to Arikace's safety profile with respect to the competition.
As for the primary endpoint of +FEV1% improvement, lmao, there's no way it doesn't show superiority. Anyone who thinks otherwise has not done their homework.
The agents for the tracker funds will need to buy millions of shares before the end of June - which means that someone must sell millions of shares before the end of June.
Many posters here seem to be under the impression that the sellers will simply sell at or around the current price, with no regard for what those millions of shares could be worth in July if, as expected, the Phase III results are good.
I don't believe that. Neither do I believe in Father Christmas or the Tooth Fairy.
If I'm right, the price at which the shares are sold will give us a clue to what the professional investors believe the shares will be worth with good Phase III results - as only Father Christmas would sell millions of shares just before the arrival of said results for a price far below the expected post-results price.
I've read suggestions on this board that Russell inclusion would drive INSM to $20 or even $30 dollars. Even taking those specific PPS speculations aside, have you seen Russell inclusion drive any stock price up even 30-40%, or even 20%?
I would wonder which equities and when.
I've read your methodical prognostications on this, and they are compelling from a blank-slate viewpoint. But like others have said, Russell inclusion would be a massive buy signal similar to company takeover speculation were there to be anything to this theory you propound.