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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • sarn_rnaster_bucka sarn_rnaster_bucka Jun 28, 2013 9:17 PM Flag

    WIll open $6 - $9 range on monday

    Just an opinion.
    1. Insm traded a lot higher than 11.60 (today's low) last few weeks/months. Traded as high as 14.30.
    The hedge that accumulated shares to swap with index funds, paid very high prices. Yes some were smart enough to buy april/may under $12 but my analysis shows the avg price the last 15mil shares traded were 12.92. These hedge funds are taking a large risks with their accumulations, and if they can, they will do their best to make sure there is nothing negative coming out prior Russell inclusion. Now (instead 5 yrs ago) we have few analysts that follow Insm, so it will not be that hard for hedges to talk with management via analysts to minimize the risk (to not release anything negative)

    2. News had leaked and last 5-6 days trading confirms it. Stock that trades around $13-14 and going to Russell will not dip to $10.73 as we saw few days ago.

    3. The real trades after hours were over 16,000 shares and all happened after this news. 95% of those trades occurred around 11.42 and 11.45. If you check the best ask, you can see after the news, asks slowly went down from 12.10, 11.90, 11.80, 11.70, as low as 11.43. No real buyers. Keep in mind the buyer at 11.42 had order in since this morning and did not know about the AH news. So if that 11.42 large bid was not there stock would trade a lot lower after hours. The 16k seller wanted to get out at any price.
    Few pumpers (less than 300 shares) try to fix the 8pm closing and traded 12.10 to 12.20 range.

    Hard to tell how bad the news will be. Management will do their best to sugar coat the news and push some unrelated positive side of the study. Like Insmed did with MMD news 5 years ago for other indicators.

    e.g, results may look good on the surface, but the variance may not be statistically significant. Therefore company may suggest that they think it will work if they increase the sample size and initiate a bigger phase 3. Just an opinion.

    Can't wait til Monday to see how wrong or correct I was

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Agree a great call. Even the sugar coating :-)

    • LOL. What a call. :-)
      Let me see if all those losers will come back and apologize for their stupid remarks. It is ok to disagree with poster, but calling names when I took my time and explained my reasonsings in detail, right or wrong those were my opinion based on trading activities last few days/weeks.

      I did not say stock will open $9 or $25 or whatever without specifics. All my points make great sense now, don't they? :-)

      Even my sugar coat was right on the money. Check the subject line, and then get the details.

      16k was low volume after hours :-) where is that loser now? ha ha ha

      Now ask this question to you. What would happen if it did not make the primary endpoints? Can you say $1? This is why is not recommended to invest companies like this with small rewards and huge risks.

      Traded as low as $7.40 pre-market, as high as 13.40, avg trade was $8.67 pre market. Now 9.52.

    • Good call.

    • The supposition that any LONG . . . who has been invested in this company since:

      1. The "non-slam dunk" of Iplex for MMD in 2009!

      2. Enduring two years of indecision and final abandonment of Iplex since the sale of FOB to Merck in 2009!

      3. Remaining LONG through the post-Transave merger and manipulations that rewarded several non-performing management personnel from 2010 to 2012!

      4. Enduring the protracted poor, non-scientific-response to the FDA's request for an explanation about two rats with lipid accumulation in the lung that could have easily been explained as NOT being precancerous lesions related to liposome and/or amikacin exposure!

      5. Seeing the non-performing management wanabes get booted, demoted (MS) and otherwise "off loaded" by WL in the last 9 months!

      5. Enduring the insufferable extremes of $billions pumping versus poorly contrived attempts at denigrating Arikace . . .

      would be influenced by any "short stature idiot" (in dire need of Iplex injections) who would suggest a "$6 to $9 SP is the safety net" beneath this stock . . . is galactically stupid!

      It was just a question of time before WL had the data to make an unequivocal "safe harbor/forward looking" statement that would represent achieving clinical goals. Even if the data was "non-superior" the single dose per day and complementary rotation of antibiotics would lead to approval of an inhalational antibiotic. But I think it is much more than that. And NTM is still not being reported by WL. Let's see if the EAP for NTM is somewhere in the presentation. BIGGIE!!!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Hmmmm...I would say you are hoping to scare someone into selling their shares cheap Monday morning pre-market. Either to cover your shorts, or get in before the news sends share price higher.

      Doubt you will pick many shares as there will be plenty of buyers pre-market. Probably kicking you self for not loading up on Friday.

      Cheers! WIndy

    • blehair Jun 29, 2013 10:11 AM Flag

      Hypothetically, if it's true that someone had an order in before they knew AH news, then you have absolutely no proof that it was a single seller who sold those shares. Anyone who tries to make a prediction based off extended market pps action is clearly a rookie, especially when we're talking about just 16k shares.

      You know how many traders REFUSE to hold through catalyst events no matter what? I'd imagine some of those sellers were in it for the Russell hype, and panicked when PR went out because they didn't do DD and didn't want to be stuck holding through a catalyst that could wipe them out like another RVX failure. (Just so people don't take me out of context, such a -90% drop cannot happen to INSM because they have cash + NTM indication which makes up vast majority of the current valuation... RVX was a 1-hit wonder whose wonder failed).

      Since you're so big on pseudo-analysis, what do you say to how INSM didn't pre-announce pending results and host CC when IPLEX bombed?

      Also, if it's not statistically significant, the results aren't good, period.

      • 2 Replies to blehair
      • I agree, I do not have absolute proof if it was 1 seller or 20 sellers. More sellers will indicate more likelihood of the bad news than less sellers. As you stated, seller(s) may have panicked cause they did not do DD.
        If you followed Insmed for years then you would not make that comment about 16k shares. 16k is lots of shares for Insmed. Insmed's average volume without russell related activities is probably less than 100-150k a day last 4-5 years, and 16k is huge number relative to 100k.
        Again, watch the trades after 16:00. We did not have a single trade ( I am not talking million of shares that were printed) prior to the news.
        Your logic of 16k seller(s) were in it just for Russell and panicked may have some truth in it. But experience Russell follower ( 16k is over $180k, so hard to tell if this trader(s) is rookie or not) will not buy and hold Russell inclusion stock after that fact or sell Russell exclusion stock. Exact opposite will make more sense.
        Good point on not per-announcing Iplex MMd news, but Insmed changed multiple CEOs, directors, CFOs since then. If you watch the tape prio MMD bad news you will see heavy selling 2-3 days before the news. I think stock went from 2.50 to ~ 2.00, and then back up around 2.25.

        To support your argument,I went back to the tape and saw that someone (rookie most likely) got 14-17k (large bids) shares at ~12.08 20-30 minutes before closure, and maybe that same rookie buyer panic as you suggested and got out after hours.

        We will know for sure on Monday.

      • blehair
        in regards to insm NOT pre announcing the iplex data report, I would say this is a new management team, FWIW....should be an interesting 48 hours..

    • Wow Sarn, talk about contrarian.
      It's almost as funny as "$30 on the Russell", and not quite as likely.
      Hopefully we can keep this post near the top of the topics list for this board on Wed. morning -
      just an additional laugh for while the champagne corks are poppin'.

    • Dude, that is all the game you got?!?!?!, That is the weakest most bs analysis posted today! Try again and this time please make it more believable, even if not true. Results are good!.

      Cheers! Windy

    • Chances are that you will need some serious sedatives Monday. WL is 100% smarter than you on your best day. What a clown. What a fraud!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • msft_901: your:
      "it will not be that hard for hedges to talk with management via analysts to minimize the risk (to not release anything negative)"

      So you think that management is releasing negative information about trial results to analysts? Is that why they all have much higher price targets than 12, so they can bolster their credibility with clients?

      No one knew when results were coming when the price dropped to 10.73 briefly. You can't say with any certainty what caused that drop. It could be any number of things. I don't think management is stupid enough to potentially get embroiled in illegalities around such an accusation.

      300 vs 16000 shares. big whoop. it's Friday. no one's watching and everyone has placed their bets.

      How do you get statistically significant variance? Variance is a statistical term used to measure the significance of DIFFERENCES between treatments. I don't think you really know what you're talking about and are blowing smoke to try to get out of a short position Monday morning.

      • 2 Replies to b_leaguered
      • msft901. Thanks. lol
        Hey I did not say management released a negative information to analysts. All I said, they always communicate, and my opinion is analyst made sure that mng understood the negative impact to the BIG hedge funds if XYZ happened.

        Insider tradings happen every day and every second. Just look around any other stock trading activities/options prior of major bad/good news. It is very hard to prove the wrongdoings.

        I did not say in certainty that everyone knew about negative results therefore 10.73. It is just my opinion. There could have be 100s of other reasons why $14 stock traded 10.73.

        "..300 vs 16000 big whoop.." LOL - it is always possible the sell is nothing to do with the news, but as I stated, my opinion is exact opposite. that 16000 seller could have sold his shares from 7am to 4:36pm at a lot higher prices, but decided to sell 2 minutes after the news. 11.49 then 11.42.

        the "Statistical significance" was just an example, why sometimes drug success may look better than placebo by simple success ratio (45% Arikace patients made the endpoint, while only 20% placebo did) comparisons, but when you consider the statistical tests then it may not be significant.

        I am not short. And I hope I am wrong and results are good, and not for you or the other longs, but for children with CF condition. My boss's stepson , I think 12, has this condition, and I forwarded him the Insmed news so he can read next week. Let's hope it is good.

      • You hit it! I almost posted "msft is that you" 20 minutes ago but my son wanted to swim (108 outside). Easy to recognize the style after all these years.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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13.22+0.32(+2.48%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT