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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • fudfighter4 fudfighter4 Jul 9, 2013 7:33 AM Flag

    Is there now a better investment than INSM?

    Anybody looking long term will struggle to find better.

    Current sales of inhaled antibiotics to the Cystic Fibrosis population are of little help in predicting the use of Arikace.

    There can be very little incentive for a patient to use a therapy which delivers a noticeable improvement in breathing for just a few months. But other therapies do offer clues.

    Pulmozyme is a recombinant version of an enzyme which makes it easier for an individual with CF to clear his/her lungs, by reducing viscosity.

    A month's supply costs $2,524.53, equivalent to $30,294.36 a year.

    Annual sales total $491,925,000 - suggesting that over 16,000 patients are being prescribed the therapy.

    The suggestion of multi-billion dollar sales for a Vertex drug currently priced at $307,000 a year indicates an expectation that healthier providers will foot the bill for drugs which deliver an improvement in quality of life.

    16,000 patients paying $36,000 a year for Arikace would generate annual sales of $576 million. The current average biotech price/sales multiple of 6 would warrant a market valuation of $3,456,000,000.

    With the number of shares currently outstanding that would equate to a share price of $110.

    It seems very likely the Company will issue more shares in order to finance the commercialisation phase. But anybody paying $10 for their shares can reasonably expect a profit of $100 a share before dilution.

    And that expectation surely represents little more than a safety net. The profit will be far greater if the data from the ongoing clinical trial support approval of Arikace as the sole approved therapy for upwards of 100,000 patients each year in the US/Europe treated for NTM.

    Arikace has now demonstrated that it delivers amikacin to a pulmonary bacterial infection. An earlier comment from Lewis offers perspective -

    "IV amikacin is used to treat this patient population right now. You can't get enough amikacin into the lung through IV to successfully address this disease.

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    • FUD, would you be so kind as to define what "long term" means to you? I request that you do not answer a question with a question. Thank you in advance for staying on point.

    • We are now cash strong and forging ahead! Yes, it is the best investment money can buy for thisprice!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Bump.
      ..For comedy.

    • When the news is grave
      And you can't be saved
      Who ya gonna call

      When the time is now
      And you don't know how
      Who ya gonna call

      When you're getting the wood
      In the neighborhood
      Who ya gonna call

      When you get PORKED and SQUEAL
      And turn around it's real
      Who ya gonna call

    • For retail investors trying to decide the best time to build a position in INSM - the timing of institutional accumulation may not be the only factor to consider.

      With this Arikace Phase III success, inhaled liposome delivery passed the second and final test. We knew it was safe. We now know it is also effective.

      This may have been the trigger for the final stage of negotiation of out-licensing deals - for the development of inhaled liposome formulations of other drugs currently administered either by tablet or by injection.

      If Insmed has been in negotiations with big pharma, news of a partnership is likely to arrive as a complete surprise to the investment community.

      Lewis, March 18 -

      "But this technology does have broader application, and there are certainly some other areas where we're seeing opportunities. And I would say, at this stage, we're quietly pursuing those. It would be important for people just from a capital use point of view to understand that should we continue to see progress in those areas, it would be our intention to partner those development efforts ..."

      Note the "should we continue to see progress" rather than "should we see progress".

      A Pharmacor analysis last year estimated that the community-acquired bacterial pneumonia antibiotic market will increase from approximately $1 billion in 2011 to more than $1.2 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

      Several key antibiotics for CABP will lose patent protection by 2021 -

      Moxifloxacin (Bayer/Merck's Avelox)

      Doripenem (Shionogi's Finibax, Janssen's Doribax)

      Ertapenem (Merck's Invanz)

      Linezolid (Pfizer's Zyvox)

      Tigecycline (Pfizer's Tygacil).

    • Sung to the tune of "ghostbusters"

      When the news is grave
      And you can't be saved
      Who ya gonna call

      When the time is now
      And you don't know how
      Who ya gonna call

      When you're getting the wood
      In the neighborhood
      Who ya gonna call

      When you get PORKED and SQUEAL
      And turn around it's real
      Who ya gonna call

    • The main reason the share price is still so low is that some investors are not certain the FDA will approve Arikace for CF on the strength of EMEA Phase III data evidencing non-inferiority.

      Most are unaware of the issue of emerging antibiotic resistance - which surely excused the FDA approval of TIP, on the grounds that greater convenience should result in better compliance.

      [In documents released ahead of an FDA panel meeting September 5, agency staff questioned whether Novartis' inhaled antibiotic powder tobramycin, dubbed TIP, improved lung function in patients with cystic fibrosis, or whether it is as safe and effective as the current version of the product ...

      "The sustainability of improvements in (lung function) found...may raise concern regarding the clinical significance of these findings," FDA staff wrote.]

      [Of the two placebo-controlled trials provided, results from one showed TIP improved lung function more than placebo, but the other study failed to meet its goal of demonstrating a statistically significant improvement in lung function.

      FDA staff noted that patients receiving TIP reported more side effects ...]

      Other data provided -

      TIP % v TIS %

      48.40 ... 31.10 ... Cough
      33.80 ... 30.10 ... Lung disorder / exacerbation
      18.20 ... 19.60 ... Productive cough
      15.60 ... 12.40 ... Dyspnea
      15.60 ... 12.40 ... Pyrexia
      14.00 ... 10.50 ... Oropharyngeal pain
      13.60 ... 03.80 ... Dysphonia
      13.00 ... 12.40 ... Hemoptysis
      11.40 ... 12.00 ... Headache
      08.10 ... 07.20 ... Nasal congestion
      07.50 ... 09.60 ... Nausea
      07.10 ... 06.20 ... Rales
      06.80 ... 06.20 ... Wheezing
      06.50 ... 02.90 ... Chest discomfort
      06.20 ... 05.70 ... Vomiting
      04.50 ... 01.90 ... Throat irritation
      04.20 ... 01.90 ... Diarrhea
      03.90 ... 00.50 ... Dysgeusia
      02.60 ... 01.90 ... Epistaxis
      02.30 ... 02.40 ... Rash
      01.60 ... 00.50 ... Bronchospasm

      01.90 ... 02.40 ... Tinnitus
      01.00 ... 00.50 ... Hearing loss

      03.90 ... 01.00 ... FEV-1 deterioration

      27.00 ... 18.00 ... Discontinuation

    • Yet another declaration from the poster who suggested $20 a share with Russell inclusion and I forget was $30 or $50 for positive phase lll.

      • 1 Reply to kennethtdc
      • from Cathys ...... "Boy Evelyn file " - ) fudfighter4 "The Shorts are just about to get wiped out"
        fudfighter4 "the Shorts will incur a combined financial loss in the tens of millions on these particular trades."
        fudfighter4 • May 13, 2013 " there is no real possibility of the tracker funds paying less than $30 a share."
        fudfighter4 "June sellers will price for good news in July "
        Who among you would swap places with Bandeh? by fudfighter4 • Jun 19, 2013 Terry possibly? I'll wager nobody else would. ...........
        Note: I was short since the end of May. YTD + 113% ROFLMAO!!!

    • Is there a worse investment is the question. insmed is more criminal enterprise than legitimate company. they will never produce anything of value.

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