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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • longinsm1 longinsm1 Jul 19, 2013 8:41 AM Flag

    The valuation model used by leading analysts

    "We arrive at our $18 price target by applying an 8x multiple to our ARIKACE sales estimates in the US and EU in 2017, discounted back 25% annually."

    The analyst estimates annual sales by 2017 of $227 million.

    An annual pricing of $36,000 equates to 6,305 of the 70,000 Cystic Fibrosis patient population using Arikace in four years time.

    It assumes NO use of Arikace in four years time by the 100,000 in the US/EU treated for pulmonary NTM infection each year.

    Anybody can see now that Arikace has been successful both in the EU pivotal study and in the safety studies that it WILL go on sale in Europe at least.

    How many of the 35,000 with CF in Europe are going to prefer a once-daily inhaled antibiotic which gives them a better improvement in their breathing over multiple cycles of therapy than the twice-daily antibiotic currently most frequently used?

    Even if Arikace is never approved for CF in the US, and never approved for NTM anywhere, with this EU Phase III success it's all but guaranteed to be used by enough patients by 2017 to justify a share price of $18 today.

    "Most (analysts) are lemmings that throw numbers out cause somebody else did."?!

    The truth is that the analysts who have present valuations of the Company of between $17 and $24 a share based their valuations upon specific revenue projections.

    Those projections, as most investors can easily see, are based upon a "worse case" scenario.

    To suggest Insmed would have had the slightest difficulty in attracting investment capital from a position of such strength is to suggest that no development-stage biotech WITHOUT a drug which has passed Phase III would be able to raise operating cash.

    Two dilutions in nine months at such surprisingly low prices demand an explanation.

    If enough of us contact the SEC it will give Hayden and Lewis the opportunity to prove they DID NOT conspire with institutional investors to destroy the shareholder value we might otherwise have expected from this Phase III success.

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    • July 2 -

      Canaccord reiterates its Buy rating - $18
      Wedbush reiterates its Buy rating - $18
      Leerink reiterates its Buy rating - $22
      Lazard reiterates its Buy rating - $24

      Date ........ High ... Low

      July 2 ... 10.15 ... 9.67
      July 3 ... 10.20 ... 9.67
      July 5 ... 10.39 ... 9.57
      July 8 ... 10.54 ... 9.96
      July 9 ... 10.20 ... 9.85

      July 18 ................ 9.776 is revealed as Insmed's new valuation.

      It's almost as though the investors who sold several million shares for less than $10 after the news of the Phase III success knew not only that Insmed would sell shares before the price had a chance to reposition in line with the analyst valuations - but also that Insmed would sell those shares for less than $10.

    • You don't have to be a forensic expert to see this is written by the fuddies...multiple fuddies using multiple IDs. Just the fuddy clowns would fill up the clown car.

    • longinsm1 is Evelyn...just look at the Math! ... 8X EIGHT! 20% of the market in Europe using in a non rotation! Throw in the SEC and fudfighter4 once again is "shocked" by the low SP ...why INSM should be $50 dollars based on pure blcht... added to the ignore

      • 2 Replies to terry_insm
      • Terry - now tell me I'm Longinsm1. That always works :-)

      • There's no chance of fooling someone as smart as you terry_insm. I admit I'm a Wedbush analyst who also posts as Evelyn:-

        "Recall, INSM recently announced the completion of CLEAR-108, their Phase
        III trial of ARIKACE. The study enrolled 302 patients (in EU & Canada),
        randomized 1:1 to either once daily 560mg ARIKACE or twice-daily TOBI. The
        primary endpoint of the trial is a relative change in FEV1 from baseline and the
        study is greater than 80% powered to demonstrate non-inferiority. Key secondary
        endpoints include change in pulmonary function & time to pulmonary exacerbation.
        • Reiterating our OUTPERFORM rating and increasing our price target to $18
        from $11. We arrive at our $18 price target by applying an 8x multiple to our
        ARIKACE sales estimates in the US and EU in 2017, discounted back 25%
        annually. We also arrive at our price target by applying a 20x multiple to our fullytaxed
        (40% tax rate) 2018 EPS plus cash per share discounted back 25% annually. "

    • Perhaps kvncmcdd and jsblvbjb can throw out some more blcht using a ton of different names.
      *** "The analyst estimates annual sales by 2017 of $227 million" **
      OTHAY! ...amazing, simply amazing!

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