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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • fudfighter4 fudfighter4 Jul 31, 2013 8:55 AM Flag

    Tessssssst - evidence of insider trading ...

    Re your -

    "There is no evidence of insider trading."

    - on what grounds do you dismiss the following as evidence of insider trading? -

    Investors who disclosed Short positions for mid-July recently sold over a million shares of INSM at an average price representing less than 60% of the average analyst valuation -

    Settlement ... Short position

    June 28 ... 2,089,095
    July 15 .... 3,281,476

    Date ......... High ... Low ..... Volume

    June 28 ... 12.11 ... 11.58 ... 4,070,922
    July 01 .... 10.65 ... 09.00 ... 4,792,748
    July 02 .... 10.15 ... 09.67 ... 1,036,093

    Valuation ... Analyst

    $17.00 ..... Canaccord Genuity
    $17.50 ..... UBS
    $18.00 ..... Wedbush
    $21.00 ..... Lazard
    $22.00 ..... Leerink Swann

    I think we've just got to the part where, if you're an honest person, you will either -

    a) offer us a reason why the investors who shorted over a million shares at an average price of less than $12 would have been confident

    - not only that the share price would NOT quickly reposition in line with analyst valuations following confirmation of Phase III success

    - but also that other investors would subsequently sell over a million shares at a price representing around 50% of the average analyst valuation, so that they could cover with a profit


    b) acknowledge that you had no valid reason for assuring investors who use this forum that there is no evidence of insider trading.

    Please remember that the reason you offer cannot depend upon access to non-public information.

    Sadly there are a number of cheap shysters currently trying to further their personal agendas by deceiving other investors with opinions on insider trading supported by nothing more substantial than hot air.

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    • The data for 28 th shows buying not selling. You show short position for 15th while results issued on 1st. Pricing of public offering caused shares to go up not down, so not very good inside information for short trade, was it? You don't short on long-term valuations, but on short term news and technical drivers. Finally, a lot of shorting is by longs and relates to hedging and selling covered options.

      • 4 Replies to tessssssst
      • OK - I think I've got it now.

        The news that Arikace had passed Phase III, confirming that the share price should be $20, was the reason the Shorts expected the share price to drop to $10 - for however long it might take other investors to sell back to the Shorts over a million shares.

        But wasn't it an unbelievable stroke of luck for the Shorts that Arikace only just succeeded?

        Imagine if superior efficacy had prompted those analysts to increase their price targets to $30. It might have taken months for other investors to sell over a million shares for $10.

      • Re your -

        "I've already explained why the news was disappointing and reasons why stocks with run up drop on less than ideal or even excellent news."

        - yes you have.

        But what you have not offered is an explanation for the confidence of the Shorts that despite the confirmation of Phase III success the share price would stay well below 60% of the average analyst valuation for however long it took for other investors to sell over a million shares for around HALF the price the analysts thought the shares were worth.

        Perhaps you're simply incapable of grasping the concept. Why would the Shorts expect other investors to sell such a massive number of shares back to them for such a ridiculously low price?

        And why would they NOT expect the share price to quickly reposition at a higher level with the confirmation of Phase III success? The Shorts had every reason to expect the buying pressure to substantially outweigh the selling pressure, and drive the price higher.

        We now know for certain that investors were willing to buy nearly SEVEN MILLION shares. Demand at that level was completely predictable, and therefore a repositioning of the share price where the analysts calculate it should be.

        The only credible explanation is that the Short selling was in anticipation of an offering which was non-public information at that point.

        Those Shorts will be sitting ducks if the SEC does investigate. And if anybody at Insmed gave them the information which allowed them to completely destroy the shareholder value those five analysts were expecting from the Phase III success we can but hope that person ends up in a prison cell.

      • So that we're all clear on this -

        The reasons you are suggesting for the confidence of the Shorts that the share price would NOT quickly reposition in line with analyst valuations - but instead go even LOWER with confirmation of Phase III success - and stay at around 50% of the analyst valuations for however long as it might take for other investors to SELL over a million shares back to the Shorts - were

        "short term news and technical drivers"?

        Specifically - what "short term news" do you believe made the Shorts so confident in selling over a million shares at 60% of the average analyst valuation?

        Clearly you can't have meant the news of Phase III success. If anything, that news confirmed that the share price should have been in the range of $17 - $24.

      • I guess that answers the question about your honesty.

        But never fear - there's bound to be a handful of investors who don't cotton on to the fact that you never provided a reason for the confidence of those Short traders that somebody would sell them over a million shares after the Phase III success for even less than the price below $12 at which they shorted.

    • You are a moron and need to stop posting. If you invest 9 million in any company, that company, whether INSM or Acad or PFE will give you a good deal on the share price. If you have 9 million of faith in the company, they reward you. Now stop being a douchebag, sell your shares and move on

    • "nothing more substantial than hot air."

      Holy Cow People....we all need to listen to FUD on this.....FUD is an EXPERT at hot air, so I absolutely and positively must agree that we must agree to what his bosses have agreed to spoon feed FUD that that he agreed to find in his busy schedule to take the time to share with us all.

      Now, let's all break out in a resounding rendition of...God Save The Queen. (please let me finish as I have a little ending that not only includes a resounding acappella finish with a little dance routine.

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