Fud. I see nothing wrong with a SEC investigation or asking for one. However, I think the news that surfaces in the next few months will give me an indication as to how strong I believe in an investigation. I'm from the school "if there's smoke, there's fire" Why did the 5 or so analysts project such lofty price valuations? Why did Insmed sell additional shares of stock at a much lower valuation than the market, and dilute the present shareholders more?
If Insmed is in possession of negative news that is not public, maybe Will Lewis and the BOD made the correct choice in doing it now. If there is not anything that can be decribed as negative coming out in the next several months, the timing certainly becomes suspect. You probably don't need a stated motive, as it's usually greed.
The only observation I'd offer about the possibility of undisclosed bad news is the disclosure that the DSMB overseeing the NTM study has now convened twice, and cleared the study to continue without modification.
This tells us that patients who have taken the 560mg dose of Arikace for 84 consecutive days have not exhibited any serious adverse effects attributable to Arikace.
It likely also tells us that the patients have experienced a noticeable improvement - otherwise one assumes the study would have been halted.
And at the risk of tempting fate - as amikacin injection is routinely used to treat pulmonary mycobacterial infections, how could Arikace realistically fail to deliver better efficacy than injected amikacin?
It's difficult to see where there is scope for serious bad news.
Gosh darnit, how silly of me, blase and fuddy, you guys are exactly right!!!
Clearly, INSM knows that the results of the PIII are not going to pass the test with EMEA and Canada. I also suspect that they know the NTM trial in the US is a risk of catastrophic failure. Specifically, the fact that the foamy macrophages seen in the earlier study would prevent proper migration through the mucoid layer and thus could not penetrate into the macrophage body. So, NTM is certainly at risk. The CF PIII is equally at risk. If you look at MIC - just average at best. And the fact that there were adverse events during the trial, well, I'm surprised that HC and EMEA didn't stop the study much like the US did for the high risk.
I believe that WL and his minions fear that the worst case scenario will play out and they will not have a drug that can be approved. With the massive and HIGHLY questionable offering that was just completed they may have set things up so that we can never ever recover from this massive dilution. Fuddy, you are right.
I believe that we are now doomed. No one should buy shares of Insmed at this price or any other price until fuddy and blasedp get to the bottom of this. There are a few other brave souls that will be spearheading this charge of the mightly and right.
The more I think about it, I don't see how Insmed can expect to get even $100M in sales at full penetration seven years from now. This entire CF PIII is hanging by a thread and I hope we can get a big break with HC and EMEA. I mean, how could I be so blind.
Unfortunately there is now another buying window open that competes directly with the open market. ie the folks that managed the secondary. I think yesterday was likely the transfer of their shares to funds. Until they exhaust their supply the open market price will suffer. They still have a big buffer between their price and market price. We, effectively, are fighting with a dark pool that we created.