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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • fudfighter4 fudfighter4 Aug 21, 2013 10:52 PM Flag

    Though-provoking valuation from Satltsasw

    1. Price of Arikace per year: $24,000
    2. Users: 24,000
    3. Annual revenue: $576M
    4. 6x multiple: $3.45B
    5. OS: 37M
    6. PPS: $93/share - no discount, but you get the point.

    Assuming it's a realistic expectation that 24,000 patients will be using Arikace four years from now, his valuation of $93 would equate to a current valuation of $29 a share if a conservative 25% is deducted for each intervening year.

    The Arikace pricing anticipated by Wedbush - $39,000 a year - would convert that $29 to a current valuation of $48 a share.

    Furthermore, I suspect most investors are aware of the size of the CF and NTM patient populations - and I'd be surprised if most investors wouldn't privately consider 24,000 to be on the low side.

    Apply an additional discount to reflect your personal opinion of the likelihood that Arikace will FAIL to be approved for CF and/or NTM - and adjust the result to reflect your personal expectation of Arikace use four years from now - and the penny might drop with you as to why I'm so annoyed at the BOD selling shares for $4.07 and $9.776.

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