IF is were true, and we add another 5M shares (to cover 2015 costs) and rounding up we have 45M shares by then (2015), our PPS would be about $160. I am being conservative and setting $20 (pretty much today's price) as the base. In the meantime, February should be our "tell" as we should rise up into the mid $20's by end of month if we believe what we have read (analysts etc.). GLTA
Let's be real clear about this marketing projection. If the Arikace course of antibiotic therapy goes 84 days without lowering the NTM CFUs, that is not an efficacious therapy. It has to cause several log reductions or eliminate the bacteria to be efficacious. So if 28 days on, 28 days rest is instituted, that is the CF/Pa protocol, not the NTM protocol. The breakthrough therapy is based upon "killing" NTM bacteria.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The primary efficacy endpoint in the trial is the semi-quantitative measurement of the change in mycobacterial density, a measurement used to evaluate the progress or decline in recalcitrant NTM patients, on a seven-point scale from baseline (day one) to the end of the randomised portion of the trial on day 84.
Time to sputum conversion, change in clinical signs and symptoms, change in patient related outcomes/quality of life and safety are some of the secondary, tertiary and exploratory endpoints fixed for the trial.
Patients are stratified for either Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infections or Mycobacterium abscessus infections and these pathogens account for about 85% in all patients with NTM lung disease in the US.
This is not Pa and CF patients. The NTM treatment will (probably) get rid of a significant number of NTM infections and, thereby, eliminate the need for monthly treatment, monthly rest, monthly treatment. If you calculate your marketing projection on that model, Arikace will probably not reach the projected figure you are suggesting. If the marketing survey is 84 days (the treatment regimen in the clinical trial, that may have to be repeated in 50% of the patients, that is probably more accurate. Remember, once the NTM is eliminated in the patient, they will probably not be participating in the activities that got them infected in the first place. My Foster Daughter had chronic Pa (associated with tracheobronchiolar infections) and got rid of most of her recurrent infections by simply not drinking tap water in Kentucky. NTM patients cannot garden, go hiking in the woods on rainy days (the mud under your feet aerosolizes NTM from the soil) and cannot drink from a stream. The NTM info organization is based right here in Coral Gables FL because this environment is predisposed to causing this infection in humans. But even if you calculate the marketing on 110,000 times 2 times $6,000 per treatment . . . you only get $1.3 billion. And that assumes that no other NTM treatments come along.
Sentiment: Strong Buy