less than 400M. The podhaler will get HALF and if inmsed gets their drug out there will split it with others.No more than 20% of the 400m or 80 million in 4 or 5 years. 320M or $7 a share. 11-14 a share est for NTM
Ritu Baral of Canaccord estimates.
Canaccord estimates are in line with my 100 M possible total revenues for Arikace CF outside the US.
Leerink's model is $340MM worldwide market opportunity
"for Arikace in CF that could create a ~$9 floor value for the stock" so these 2 analysts and myself are inline.
Dear Gertrude, your glass here is almost empty, why? You only posted IF the target opportunity fails, why?
Anyway, here is what Leerink (J Schwartz) stated in December:
"Leerink "Swann":I posted this a few days ago (2/4), timing is everything. Reposting for those who may not have seen.
Here is their (Joe S) assessment of Insmed last month They have a $22 target currently.
• We believe that INSM shares are poised to appreciate as the
company develops and subsequently commercializes its sole product
Arikace (inhaled liposomal amikacin) in two attractive orphan
disease markets: cystic fibrosis (CF) and non-tuberculous
• We believe that Arikace presents an attractive clinical profile and is
differentiated by its unique biochemical capacity to target evasive
• During 1Q14, we anticipate a readout on Arikace’s safety and
efficacy in the (potentially pivotal) Phase II TARGET study in
American NTM patients.
• We see optionality with INSM shares here after the CLEAR-108
data, which demonstrated that 1x daily Arikace is non-inferior to 2x
daily Tobi in cystic fibrosis. If TARGET is a success, INSM shares
could be worth $30+ on 2025E sales of $1B in NTM/CF. If
TARGET fails, we model a $340MM worldwide market opportunity
for Arikace in CF that could create a ~$9 floor value for the stock
which could be bolstered by Arikace’s potential in other indications
such as non-CF bronchiectasis.
• INSM has three Orange Book listable patents including a
composition of matter patent expiring in 2028 and may be entitled to
additional market exclusivity under Hatch-Waxman, GAIN act
legislation, or QIDP for the NTM indication. Our Outperform rating
reflects our expectation that INSM shares will appreciate as clinical,
regulatory and commercial catalysts are realized and investors
augment their view of the company’s potential."