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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • l40characters l40characters Feb 23, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    FYI Revenues outside USA Cystic Fibrosis

    less than 400M. The podhaler will get HALF and if inmsed gets their drug out there will split it with others.No more than 20% of the 400m or 80 million in 4 or 5 years. 320M or $7 a share. 11-14 a share est for NTM
    Ritu Baral of Canaccord estimates.

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    • Canaccord estimates are in line with my 100 M possible total revenues for Arikace CF outside the US.
      Leerink's model is $340MM worldwide market opportunity
      "for Arikace in CF that could create a ~$9 floor value for the stock" so these 2 analysts and myself are inline.

      • 3 Replies to gertrude_theduck
      • Dear Gertrude, your glass here is almost empty, why? You only posted IF the target opportunity fails, why?

        Anyway, here is what Leerink (J Schwartz) stated in December:

        "Leerink "Swann":I posted this a few days ago (2/4), timing is everything. Reposting for those who may not have seen.

        Here is their (Joe S) assessment of Insmed last month They have a $22 target currently.

        "Investment Thesis
        • We believe that INSM shares are poised to appreciate as the
        company develops and subsequently commercializes its sole product
        Arikace (inhaled liposomal amikacin) in two attractive orphan
        disease markets: cystic fibrosis (CF) and non-tuberculous
        mycobacteria (NTM).
        • We believe that Arikace presents an attractive clinical profile and is
        differentiated by its unique biochemical capacity to target evasive
        respiratory infections.
        • During 1Q14, we anticipate a readout on Arikace’s safety and
        efficacy in the (potentially pivotal) Phase II TARGET study in
        American NTM patients.
        • We see optionality with INSM shares here after the CLEAR-108
        data, which demonstrated that 1x daily Arikace is non-inferior to 2x
        daily Tobi in cystic fibrosis. If TARGET is a success, INSM shares
        could be worth $30+ on 2025E sales of $1B in NTM/CF. If
        TARGET fails, we model a $340MM worldwide market opportunity
        for Arikace in CF that could create a ~$9 floor value for the stock
        which could be bolstered by Arikace’s potential in other indications
        such as non-CF bronchiectasis.
        • INSM has three Orange Book listable patents including a
        composition of matter patent expiring in 2028 and may be entitled to
        additional market exclusivity under Hatch-Waxman, GAIN act
        legislation, or QIDP for the NTM indication. Our Outperform rating
        reflects our expectation that INSM shares will appreciate as clinical,
        regulatory and commercial catalysts are realized and investors
        augment their view of the company’s potential."

        Sentiment: Buy

      • The US market is equal to all of the rest of the world.Thanks to Obama and Congress,pharmaceuticals and shareholders rip off the elderly.

      • Tell us again Trudy when we cross $50 pps...................out of line describes you perfectly. Clown.

        Sentiment: Buy

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