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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • doughcm doughcm Mar 27, 2014 7:31 AM Flag


    Did you catch Dr. Gupta's reference to MDR-TB in her presentation yesterday? Interesting. Believe me, no matter how the detractors and the unwashed masses try to negatively spin this it surely ain't over by a long shot.

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    • Yesterday's results also started the clock ticking on commercialisation partnerships in Asia.

      Proof of efficacy in Cystic Fibrosis will have had little bearing on future sales of Arikace in countries populated by people of non-European descent. Chinese and Japanese don't carry the CF genetic mutation.

      But there is now solid proof of Arikace efficacy against pulmonary mycobacterial infections. A leak that Insmed is now in partnership discussions with one of the big pharmas would drive some spectacular share price appreciation.

      A revisit of something I posted yesterday -

      If I was the Chairman of Merck I'd be on the phone today to Hayden - looking to cut a deal with him before another big pharma does so, to develop and commercialise Arikace in China as a therapy for MDR-TB.

      An estimated 120,000 Chinese every year are currently developing MDR-TB - and being treated with toxic antibiotics such as amikacin injection which causes permanent loss of hearing.

      The Chinese health authorities recently approved Bedaquiline under their accelerated approval process as an additional weapon in the war against their MDR-TB epidemic.

      Here's the CDC-recommended regimen -

      [ The recommended dosage for bedaquiline is 400 mg once daily orally for 2 weeks, followed by 200 mg three times a week for 22 weeks taken orally with food in order to maximize absorption. ]

      The price of 24 100 mg tablets is somewhere north of $4,000.

      Therefore the recommended CDC regimen would entail 188 tablets, with an overall cost of over $31,000.

      A 12-week course of Arikace would likely cost somewhere around half that - without the risks associated with Bedaquiline.

      Merck already has a substantial revenue stream from its sales in China.

    • Haven't listened to the CC since I heard it live, and much of that is now little more than a blur.

      But the first analyst to predict Arikace will be used for MDR-TB will blow this share price manipulation wide open.

      And let's be realistic here. The top analysts currently covering Insmed wouldn't be in their jobs if they lacked the intelligence to connect the dots between solid proof of efficacy against drug-resistant NTM and likely efficacy against drug-resistant TB.

      The analysts have never mentioned MDR-TB simply because it hasn't YET suited their agendas for the share price to really take off.

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