Are you serious? LOL
You telling me the market didn't know on Friday that the bill would pass in a few hours and they kept bidding it up? LOL I don't think the big brokerages are that clueless.
That's what you cronies said, 22 when UNH was 25 and now we are at almost 29 and volume has picked up.
What you don't realize is that the press lied to you the small investor the first time, they got you to sell a PE of 7.5 stock because of the fear, they then accumulated in the 24s and without any noise the price is right where it was before the scare. People look at the profitability and the value of this company now and will see through the scare, heck, they might even upgrade it now ...LOL
This thing goes higher tomorrow...
But if it goes down, I'll load up on more call, it's a win-win...LOL
$22 will be an early christmas present. Listen remove emotions and look at the facts, this bill won't see they light of day and even if it does the impacts don't start until 2013. UNH will easily earn $3.15/share (that's before buybacks and I think they lowballed next years earnings estimates) So let's say 2010 $3.50/share, the multiple will not go below 7 and will more than likely stay around 8 even under the worst conditions. If they start paying a dividend we'll see a 10 multiple. So do the math, worst case if you can get shares at $22 you'll easily return 10%.
If UNH is smart (and I believe their management is extremely smart) they'll start cutting admin costs (more unemployment, UNH employees nearly 85k employees bet the congressman can't wait for those layoffs) and distribution costs (short brokerage and benefit consultant stocks now) so that even at 85% MLR they maintain current profits. Right now their average MLR is a little over 83%, AET is at 85%. On average your premiums include anywhere from 4% to 6% broker commission so the take a pound of flesh from the brokers and profits remain unchanged. Now figure in all these new customers they'll get and in a few years your $22 investment will easily double.
The reports of the death of UNH are greatly exegeratted
I think that the article you reference was written by someone who doesn't understand that the house "public option" will not pay medicare rates or provide much in the way of competition.
Face it, a group of bureauacrats with 2-6 billion in seed money trying to start an insurance company is ridiculous...
As far as I can tell this has a snowballs chance in hell of passing the senate looking anything like it does now.
The MLR limitations seem like the worst fly in the ointment here but UNH is diversified and growing so a 10-15% drop in their risk based margins starting 3-4 years from now seems like a vague sort of problem.
I think we may well drop tomorrow because of all the headlines... I'll wager that there are a lot of folks who don't understand that passing a bill through the house(by the thinest of margins) and actually signing a law are two very different things.
I guess it will boil down to how much of Thursday-Friday's run up was based on the hope that she would fail.
The idea that Pelosi would fail to deliver any bill was never on the radar here until late last week.
The house bill will be spun a hundred ways but it is over now and the ball is in the Senate court.
We almost certainly will see a slide to the right by Reid.... when?
The election clock is ticking, the house bill is going to start to smell real bad in a week or so as experts continue to comb through it and point out flaws.
So I think tomorrow will present a buying opportunity.
We may even see a bit of a short squeeze if the apocolypse doesn't show up on schedule for the shorts.
I'm not selling anything(except... maybe naked puts, if the spirit moves me)