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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

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  • diogenes1234 diogenes1234 May 11, 2003 1:41 AM Flag

    all you need to know about oil prices

    Skithrax:

    I feel we all have something to learn from your experience and record of success.

    What do you feel BPT's "fair value" is today? How do you reach that conclusion?

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    • fair value is always the current price based on supply and demand. what a willing buyer is willing pay a willing seller absent any duress. i paid 13.75 last fall and have collected 1.97 in div's since then.not a bad roi. one i,am big on is FORD , have accumulated with avg 8.45 pays 40 cents, coming off 2 yrs of big losses expect .70 eps this year, had .45 eps this last qtr. has big pipeline of new product coming, has gained a bit of market share also celebrates 100 years in june. i think this a 18-20 stock in a year.ofcourse i,am an auto guy having been a supplier to them in the machine tool automation area (which is picking up big time) has always been an indicator for auto's to lead out of a recission

      • 3 Replies to skithrax
      • Machine tool automation sales are flat to down over the past two years. I have spoken with sales managers in that industry and they tell me that there is no pickup in sight. I don't know where you are getting your info, but I don't buy that.

        Ford also has tremendous, absolutely mind boggling, underfunded pension liabilities. That is the single largest factor which brought the mighty steel industry to its knees, and I would be wary of the auto sector for the same reason. JMHO.

      • Skithrax:

        I agree that for practical purposes, investors with limited analytical capability should assume that the market is "efficient" -- that most equities, in particular the big caps, are "fairly priced", each to the other and relative to the overall market. They should thus focus their consideration on "suitability" in terms of risk, and of diversification if that is part of their strategy. In other words, don't worry too much whether Ford is a better value than GM, but rather consider which is better suited to your objective.

        BPT, however, is an exception to the foregoing. It is neither a stock nor your usual royalty trust. Your comment relative to CD's and "getting their money back" suggests that you do not understand BPT.

        Incidentally, you should not confuse Valuestock's (and my) "assumptions" with hard "predictions." In fundamental security analysis, much as in the engineering of automation systems, the future may be explored and better understood by sensitivity analysis -- IBM's "what if?" A sophisticated form of this is termed Monte Carlo Analysis which in fact was applied against BPT a couple of years ago on this board with conclusions not materially different from Valuestock's and my simpler approach.

 
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