Let me get this straight: cash strapped BP is selling BPT to Apache for costs related to their oil spill well ahead of the market premium? Usually large sum transactions go for less than the market premium.....but, if you'd prefer to test your theory of $120, then go right ahead and wait for your 30 year old oil field with 10% anual declines in production to get to $120/share.
One way to forecast the worth of a company is the future earnings. Assuming a 5 years projection. what can the barrel of crude be worth. The consensus is that world oil production has picked. If not in volume the prospects are that new production will be many times more costly then what is in production today. From an American point of view, without the GOM 10% oil production, the spot market with go up, the US will not do without oil at this time. Is $120 or $150 possible? My belief is that all existing O&G production cost will go up because of the GOM spill. I cannot see oil price at $80 in 12 month. At minimum $100 and probably $120 average with pick prices at $150 or more. I do not know the amount of Prudhoe Bay production is on long term contract. But with the price going up, PBT will benefit as the 90 000 barrels will generate more revenues. The market tend to be 6 month ahead of the economy. Those numbers make senses!