Excellent analysis. However, do you know the current projected date/year when the BPT field will run out of oil? I seem to recall that current reserves are conservatively estimated to run at least another 10 years.
The date when the Prudhoe Bay field runs out of oil doesn't matter... BPT will terminate long before that happens. Because the NPV of future distributions (even with very optimistic assumptions) is below the current market price, I believe BPT may be suitable for speculation but not investment.