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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

  • roundrobinjack roundrobinjack Mar 26, 2013 5:43 PM Flag

    Preliminary Distribution Estimate, Pt 1

    Wide price swings in WTI have made forecasting the price component of BPT's distributions difficult at best. In addition, I have to admit that my forecast long and short term has both been increasingly out of step with forecasts of other "experts" (mainly commodity traders, not actual "oil men" within the industry). Accordingly, keep in mind that my forecast makes significantly different assumptions as a result of which I am far more bullish that anyone else I know of:

    Short term: I expect a strong rally as a result of two events to hit the market in the near future. First, I believe the threat of a US windfall profit tax on oil is lifting from the scenario of possible actions by politicians more focused on incompatible positions on income taxes and social security/medicare with no willingness to compromise. This is letting more oil go to Europe than here, reducing Brent and raising WTI. Secondly, seasonality of other forecasts are shortsighted by focusing only on demand, whereas the season for political protest and action (mainly in the mideast) has much more of an impact. And an Arab spring is just around the corner, IMO.

    Log term: Most forecast call for some form of US or North American oil independence to depress prices as shale production (and reworking of old fields with similar methods) supposedly will increase production year after annually for the next decade or more. This is wrong on two counts. While it is true that shale production has caused a major boost in the short term, I do not expect that these wells will decline at the typically slow rates of conventional wells using pumps only and no stimulation (usually about 10% year to year). Instead, these wells will decline IMO at higher rates typical of stimulated wells (20-40%). To grow production annually would require ever increasing amounts of new drilling sites and equipment--which I don't see as practical. Secondly, the higher cost of these methods, will only be spent if prices rise.

17.30-0.21(-1.20%)Sep 23 4:02 PMEDT