I really don't see this trust as a price play here. It all comes down to if you going to receive enough royalty payments. The way I see it is if you have a 10% yield then it's going to take you roughly 10 years to recoup your cost through royalty payments at 90/share. A bit less if you reinvest. If you see this as a long term investment, then holding it 10 years shouldn't be a problem assuming that you believe the oil is going to last that long and the taxes don't increase exponentially.
Once you are paid back, the price is gravy. Calc out the number of share you think you will have at the end (if reinvested) x the price you think it will be in 10 years (good/bad/neutral based upon oil price/production scenarios). Figure the taxes on the royalties if not in an IRA. If that CAGR is enough than it's a good investment. I'm glad I bought in at 68. The longer you are in the better it gets once the royalty payments become gravy too. Like jk said, it has been a long term winner so far. I find the royalty trusts easier to figure out than corporations. Try reading DOWs annual statement... You need a PHD in chemical engineering to figure that one out.
So what's your point. All stocks ebb and flow. When you factor in the dividends these movements are not distressing. There's more oil to be had up there and they know it. and this stock is a long term winner.
First of all, BPT is not a Stock, there is no Company, there are no assets. There is nothing to improve upon.
It is a Trust. A Trust is a piece of paper, a Document. That document defines how you will receive 16 + percent of the first 90.000 barrels of oil pumped per day by the actual oil companies.
It is not always 90,000 barrels. Sometimes less, The actual is determined by averaging the actual amount pumped during each quarter..The value is determined utilizing WTI and CPI.
That amount is delivered to the Trustee as a Royalty Payment. The Royalty Payment is then sent to the 21 million + Unit Holders as a Distribution.
The point I am making is that during the entire 24 year life of BPT there has been only one 2 year period that the price has been $100. tTat is not ebb and flow:,more like a Tsunami. Even $90 is rare. only five months in that 24 years.
What I am saying is that if you paid a high price, when you are ready or need to sell you may not get what you paid for it. You can make a profit, just not as much if your Market Value did not appreciate.