Took a look at the trust release for the dividend going ex on February 14. According to the release, the trust has paid distributions on 6.1 million BOE out of a total of 8.2 million BOE over the life of the trust.
That leaves 2.1 million BOE to be distributed to trust holders over the next few years.
In the 4th quarter, the trust had distributable cash flow of $8,008,030 which included gains of $1,380,969 of hedging gains which won't repeat. That leaves theoretical cash flow of $6,627,061 for the quarter. The trust produced 292,148 BOE in the 4th quarter. Taking $6,627,061 and dividing by 292,148 gives us $22.68 of distributable cash flow per BOE.
With 2.1 million (8.2 - 6.1 million) BOE remaining to be distributed and distributable cash of $22.68 assuming no changes in the prices of oil or nat gas, that leaves future cash flow of $47,628,000.
With 13,863,889 trust units outstanding, that leaves future cash flows of $3.44 to be received in the future. Can anyone poke a hole in my logic?
I don't know about the specifics of your math but WHX holders right now will get screwed yes unless they sell soon.
The trust does have a limited amount that it will pay out and it is far less then the current value. Most trusts get run up in price as people "back up the truck" to buy a high yielding distribution. They don't realize what you have found out... limited payout.
The price will crash when everyone runs to the exit and then we get people creating threads here about manipulation and how the little guy cannot make a buck and the inevitable class action lawsuit discussion starts up.
Most often they are started by the same people who tell me I'm an idiot who does not know what a great investment a land trust it lol.