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Whiting USA Trust I Whiting USA Message Board

  • dvoowner dvoowner Jul 30, 2013 10:08 AM Flag

    WHX is up 59% from $3.30 low.

    Previous dividend runs sold off after 44% run up - Jan 24th, and after 77% run-up April 24th. From past experience it will sell off once volume increases beyond 500k (todays pace is set for approx 780k, or more ... so maybe sell off today ... I say today it sells off -- my estimate).

    Then it will build again for the dividend as it has done the last few dividends (see 6 month chart, and/or longer charts for similar patterns). Regards, GL

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    • I will give credit where credit is due dvoowner.

      Having a target volume (or any non emotional trigger) sounds like a reasonable trading plan for WHX.
      At least better then "This is going to $9 just like last quarter!" without any rhyme or reason.

      I would point out though that the closer WHX gets to dissolution the less volume it should get as people permanently move on to other things. (course if it actually does taper off in volume who knows until it happens)
      Jul 29th's 489k might be close enough for your trigger.

    • Nice post. Good to see people on here that get it.

    • It will continue to rise up to the Ex. date. Went over 9.00 last quarter. Was playing golf and tried to sell next morning early but opened two dollars lower and cost me 15k by not being at my computer that evening. I would have gotten out at 9. Enjoy the ride.

      • 1 Reply to gepgolf
      • It went up 77% last qtr and sold off at 9.57 onn April 24th. But that was the pre- div run & sell off (actually it was WLL's earning day). It sold down to 5.66 April 30th. Then it run up 31% for the dividend and sold off at 7.40 May 14th for dividend.

        This double run up and sell off for the dividend has happened a number of times. The Feb dividend ran up from 4.50 to 6.61 (44%) on Jan 24th. Then it ran up from 5.50 to 7.85 (43%) and sold off for the dividend Feb 12th.

        There are two run up events. As mentioned previously the first run up was sold off when WLL earnings were announced - even though the earning of WLL doesnt impact WHX, but some folks must think it does). For April/May run you could have made $4 on earning day run, and then $2.16 for the dividend run on pre x-div run. That's $6.16 total for 114% gain. Lets see if this div run has 2 parts to the run up .... it did not sell off on WLL's earning day as previous runs, so not sure how this will play out. Regards, and GL.

0.60610.0000(0.00%)Mar 13 3:56 PMEDT