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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 8, 2012 10:26 AM Flag

    ETP conference call

    The call just ended. Some random comments.

    Analyists seemed confused (as is everyone else) in trying to figure out cash flows and howe everything fits together and flow.

    ETP is considering merging Regency into ETP.

    ETP is NOT considering selling the retail SUN stations at this time.

    The are looking at selling the APU units beginning in 2013. I would look for some sort of a longer term at the market sales agreement like LINE, APL and others are using to issue new units instead of a secondary or PIPE offering.

    Differentials on intrastate in TX continue poor.

    Reversal of a couple of lines progressing and wil provide DCF in 2014.

    Would not speculate on what will happen with SXL units/ownership.

    "Holdco" will get dropped into a MLP. Not sure exactly what that means and ETP gave nothing to clarify that I remember on a followup question. Do those assets go to ETP? A new MLP? Are some sold off?

    They did say they were looking at selling off some assets related to SUG that are in Holdco (I think).

    Lots more analyist interest.

    FD - I bought a significant additional interest in ETP yesterday.

    Any comments and thoughts welcomed.


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    • burnaka Nov 9, 2012 12:11 PM Flag

      Correct me if I am wrong, but one point they made was the sale, in no less than 2 blocks of apu worth at current market about 1 billion. Apu is paying .80 per unit/Q, etp owns about 25% for about 18m in income per q. That aside, selling apu stake ( my take ) with little/no debt due in 2013,and with capex below 750 m, they might not need a secondary any time soon. Or did I read between the lines with rose colored glasses.

      • 1 Reply to burnaka
      • ETP has sufficient liquidity according to Kelcey to get to Q2 of 2013 w/o a secondary. They were clear that they will sell APU, but work with APU so as to not disrupt the market. The need for cash will come more from whatever sort of consolidation they come up with. CCall suggested Regency was sort of step #1. I still think selling the retail stations is step #2. That logically makes integrating "holdco" into ETP step #3. The problem is ETE needs to go away. Wonder when and how?


    • This is a good entry point to ETP. In the long run they will perform as well as Sunocco Logistics which I have owned for 12 years.

      I bought 50,000 shares yeasterday of ETP. Where can you beat this dividend? and potential growth.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Wednesday, November 7, 5:26 PM Energy Transfer Partners (ETP): Q3 EPS of $0.26 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $1.42B misses by $300M. (PR)

      • 1 Reply to rjraecek
      • rjr - Those numbers are interesting but really meaningless. EPS is not used when comparing MLPs - DCF is. Also revenues are really useless as well. ETP buys NGLs and processes them for a fee and sells them. They make money on the processing, but the entire value of the MGls goes through the books. Thus if prices of the commodity are down, then revenues are down, but it has NOTHING to do with profits.

        The Sunoco name never came up. I cannot imagine they would change a 100 year old brand name and spend maybe $100M to do so. Nothing to be gained is there?

        As to revenue expectations - are you asking about revenues of DCF? As to revenues they expect them to be flat because there is little liklihood of NG and NGL prices moving upward. They spoke a lot about the continued integration of the SUG and SUN assets and those assets will have reduced costs for about 18 months as things are melded together. DCF prospects look very good as $2B in new projects are now on line and SXL doing good things with Mariner East getting going and Mariner West going into service soon.

        ETP predicting future distributions? Didn't they do that not once, but twice? Didn't they get hammered both times? LOL I would think absolute secrecy and then an announcement probably on an unexpected day. That said it is not hard to run the proforma numbers after we get them for Q4. That will show things after the holdco and SUN buys/dropdowns and I would think about a 1.15X coverage if CS and GS are correct.


    • Couldn't make call, but holding 64,800 shares at about $42.30, so very interested. Any mentions about revenue expectations and/or future distribution expectations? Thx for any insights.

    • Thanks ARB!.

      I wasn't able to catch this call and I'm glad you posted what you did. It seems like the initial market reaction liked what they heard. They probably want a 100% buy on the stations so they are not there yet. Any mention of what they are going to do with the Sunoco name? I kind of figure that will go with the stations once it's all said and done.

      Looking forward to my $3,580.00 distribution in a week or so and thanks again for your post!

    • I have been adding a bunch too , and am overwieght ETP . A whole lot of moving parts with ETP . Any sense of the final coverage ratio ?

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