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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • pcmountaindog pcmountaindog Mar 17, 2013 11:26 AM Flag

    ETP just not moving?

    Something is strange in all of this.

    With a reasonable report for the last quarter (reasonable but, not great) this thing is stuck. With a distribution yield of 7.60 on 47.21 last close this is not adding up. If the condition of the company is solid then the price should be moving up and pushing the yield down. The masses are seeing risk here.

    I would like to increase my stake but I can't find enough information to explain why ETP is trading is trading at this valuation. My analysis just is not showing this much risk. I have to be overlooking something. The market just can't be off by this many basis points on the yield. It's starting to look too good to be true. The more I look the more I think I should sell as I am starting to doubt the distribution will hold. One thing I know for sure, if the distribution gets cut, there will be a big move to the down side which will take years to recover. There is a risk reason ETP is pay such a higher yield then other MLPs.

    With long term yields down at 3-4 percent the market should be all over this one pushing the yield down to 4-5. There is a risk reason it's not and I just can't find it.

    Any thoughts out there?

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    • The MLPs with yields in the 4-5% range are the ones with very fast distribution growth.
      ETP's yield is typical of those which have no distribution growth (BWP, BPL, NS, etc).
      No way ETP is going to be awarded a 4-5% yield unless it really starts raising distributions very fast which seems unlikely.
      I see ETP as fairly valued and comparable to other no or low growth peers, at least until such time as it can start meaningful distribution growth.
      I think your expectations are faulty.

    • be very happy its not moving....I vote for it staying here forever

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