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Air Methods Corp. Message Board

  • traderjoe90 traderjoe90 Aug 26, 2013 4:37 PM Flag

    Smart money not covering short positions

    56k+ covered since 8/9 pop. No money mgr worth their salt would buy this pos north of $25+.

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    • Days to cover is now 26 days. Daily volume is weak. Fundamentally, these two metrics are bearish. Oct 35 puts OI is 4k+. 3500 of those contracts were bought early July @ $3.20/contract. Reflecting on the events of the last 60 days, I'm starting to believe they are a hedge from professional trader(s) looking for the 8/9 earnings short squeeze. Buying the Oct 35s is puzzling though considering Aug 35s or Sept 35s were obviously much cheaper to insure against a big long stock position to capitalize on the squeeze. I can only speculate the Oct 35s may have been purchased expecting the short squeeze to be short lived, but why not buy Jan 30 puts to buy more time and mitigate risk. It may be creating a floor for the professional trader(s) to short more.

      Nonetheless, the stock is clearly beginning a long term downtrend and volume is displaying a complete lack of interest. Of course, the owning institutions could keep it at 40+ infinitely, but they will never realize a gain until they sell. The 8/9 short squeeze cost the institutions $200M+ to squeeze 56k+ shorts and the latest short interest represents 63k+ more covered. Hardly a successful squeeze. If the institutions initiate another squeeze, it will likely cost them more, but it's appearing more and more unlikely. Eventually, it becomes a poker game to see who sells first and the pressure will only increase as Q3 earnings get closer.

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