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美國住宅抵押貸款投資公司 Message Board

  • roderickb99 roderickb99 Feb 26, 2007 1:23 PM Flag

    Citibank Likes AHM. Rpt follows

    Analyst: Donald Fandetti, CFA
    Date: 01/25/2007
    Industry: Specialty Finance
    Company: American Home Mortgage Investment Corp (AHM)
    Rating: HOLD (2) High Risk (H) Target Price: $36.00

    * AHM reported Q4'06 EPS of $1.21, below our
    est of $1.36 yet above consensus of $1.19.
    Shortfall was due to MBS mkt-to-mkt and lower
    portfolio income.
    * The quarterly dividend was boosted 6c to
    $1.12 and was a slight acceleration from their
    typical 5c hike. Mgt now expects 6c increases
    per qtr through '07.
    * Guidance for 2007 EPS was introduced at
    $5.40-$5.70, above consensus est's of $4.89 and
    representing 12% y/y growth at the mid-point.
    Loan origination guidance is now $68-$74 B for
    '07, up 21% y/y.
    * Credit deteriorated and the portfolio margin
    declined, though gain-on-sale and originations
    were strong in Q4. Record orig's at $16 B (see
    product mix herein).
    * Good Q4 performance, but it's an uphill
    battle for the stock in an environment where
    many residential lenders are stumbling and
    credit trends are weakening.
    * Reiterate Hold rating. Raising our 2007 EPS
    to $5.45 (+$0.45), 2008 to $5.72 (+$0.52), and
    introducing 2009 EPS of $6.00. Current div
    yield 13.9%.