listen this is an over reaction because of the 96% percent profit decrease but that was only that high due to a once only tax exempt this is a buy here thoughts?
Missing sales and expense of opening new stores. I am a site superintendent building Aeropostals and American Eagles and these stores are expensive to build. They are trying to open 8-10 stores this year. This is ambitious for JJ's.
The overreaction to the PPS on Friday is due to short sellers...that's all. The earnings estimates were in-line...but shorts found an opportunity and took it.
They'll be gone except for that lame outofasswipes. He seems to enjoy misery. Loser!
A poor sale qtr can give the shorts a chance but if the business model still valid and not in heavy debt, the stock can usually get back on its feets again. Look at quantum, late last year fell back to near a dollar but now near to $3. Same thing with finisar, plunge to $12 but now close to $40. VVTV also fell near to a dollar but now above $6. All these stocks plunged late last year all due to earning miss but now gone up many times.
The story is deeper and wider than you think. Unless you've followed the company and the stock for a while (more than a year) it would be hard for you to understand why there is this huge sell-off. Trust the market on this one. It's telling you the truth.
Here's an outline to get you started:
* The big eps jump for 4th qtr '09; shareholders were not told this was mostly all from a tax benefit.
* 1st quarter '10; shareholders were not told that the quarter would be subject to a 45% tax rate until the qtr. call itself. This was hugely material and should have been talked about asap before the call.
* In totality, sales have been showing signs of weakness since the very beginning of 2010. These signs were shown to be true with this latest call.
* As more investors did the homework they discovered truly outlandish executive compensation structures. Structures that combine to equal appx. 10% of market cap. Truly insane.
If you look at what I've outlined you'll see how the pps chart action corresponds. Like I said; the market is telling you true here. Keep in mind- a 3-5% sell-off after earnings is just a "whatever" kind of thing. Nearly 25%? That's the investors sending a very clear message of profound disapproval and should be heeded as such. It was like when Ford sold off to the tune of about 20% after their last call. You know why that happened? Because management withheld key material information from shareholders leading up to the quarter end. A big no-no and they were punished for it.
Bottom line: 3-5% sell-off and the market players could be trying to fake you out. Any sell-off even greater than that means it's not a fake and people are truly running away. When that running away is on super high volume for the security you know it's a falling knife.
Good luck to you. Have a awesome weekend. I understand weather around the country is going to be nicer than it's been for a while. Hopefully we'll all enjoy. Peace :-)
Charles, not exactly a factual assessment.
<<The big eps jump for 4th qtr '09; shareholders were not told this was mostly all from a tax benefit.
Sure they were. It came up in the Q3'09 CC. It was clear in the YE'09 financials. From my 1/26/11 posting, "Looking at the y-o-y EPS for Q4, the one-time non-cash tax entry in Q4'09 will have some retail investors nervous (bringing out the resident bashers), but that's already baked into the numbers by the analysts...no impact."
<<1st quarter '10; shareholders were not told that the quarter would be subject to a 45% tax rate until the qtr. call itself. This was hugely material and should have been talked about asap before the call.>>
Keep in mind that the statutory tax rate is 40%, so the 5% difference is not that material on the meager earnings. As I've mentioned before, the earn-out non-deductibility impact is ~$.05 EPS across the year, which hurts like heck when they're not putting out big numbers.
Now what you've failed to mentioned in your posts is the investment impact in the retail stores. In the last couple calls, no one has asked or talked about how much of the SG&A will be NON-recurring on a store-by-store basis. As such, we don't know whether we're simply in an investment period of retail strategy or whether the strategy is not working.
Where I haven't commented to your points, I geneerally agree w/ your sentiment!
75% percent of those points are speculation unless you are part of that company you would know inside problems going on or wrong doings. Second of all ford was widely over hyped up by anaylst and they report one of the best quarters in their history but people never get enough and it was driven down only to be back up to 16.50 again and that company will thrive in years to come. This isnt a conspiracy they still made the profit they were called to make in joe's