My 50 year old sliderule isn't as accurate as my HP 12C which confirms wildpickuptruck's figure of 5.81 years at 13.4% compounded growth. The 12C also says the compound growth rate to reach the lower Value Line range of 60 in four full years '03-'06 is 12.1%. Put this in the context of past actual total return performance: 1 yr. +5.5%; 3 yr.+13.9%;
5 yr.+5.6%; 10 yr.+17.6%; 15 yr.+17%.
All of these substantially outperform the S&P 500 through the ten year history; have no comparables for 15 years but would guess the same would hold true.
Another good earnings report today; EPS up 28.3% for the year, 14.8% for the quarter. Asset quality looks very good with loan losses in 2003 expected to be lower.
Another consistant performance year! This is a good steady holding which has helped my portfolio the last few dull years.
Value Line, as I reported earlier, predicts BBT stock will be in the $60-80 range in the 2005-2006 timeframe. That growth far exceeds $79 in 15 years! Gosh! What is the annual rate to gain that amount? And, yes, I to used a slide rule daily in college a long time ago.
Using the formula for compound interest, A=P(1+i)to the nth for a $38 stock to reach $79 at 13.4%/year requires 5.81 years.
I used my TI, BAIII hand held calculator.
I may be wrong, it has been a long time since I made these kind of calculations.
Man, I must have been TIRED last night. I rechecked my calculation using my trust TI1500 and the following assumptions:
Current price $38
Future price $79
Number of yrs 10
Run for internal rate of return. I now get 7.59 years. Anyone else get something different?
I got 5.44 years, but my slide rule may be wrong (know what a slide rule is?).
Real question is how likely is it that annual increase of 13.4% is correct, among other things.
This was fun Truck, but about as relavent as your nick name, IMHO. The "other things" are too many and too hard to figure.
Its been many years since I used my little hand held calculator to compute interest, but I think I have computed correctly, just using capital growth it looks like the price of BBT stock will reach $79/share in 5.76 years at an increase on 13.4%.
One way to determine how long it takes your money to double in just divide 72 by the interest rate.
Thanks for your kind words. I'm not sure I agree with your implication (or maybe just my inference?) that all you read in the popular news is accurate about all those terrible Wall Street and CEO folks. Yes, it is clear that there are some crooks who have been caught, but it seems to me that we shouldn't paint every exec. who disagrees with us or makes a tough and unpopular decision as the same as those few real crooks. That's the universal U$A victim mentality creeping in. Grow up folks.
I also think that, although the law sez that the CEO/Board must not block a sale to protect their own positions, etc., but must "do what's best for the stockholders"; this is subject to wide interpretation and is often misused due to the subjectivity of "what's best". Many exec's think that their unreasonable (IMHO) corporate provided lifestyle and "the shareholder's interests" would be better served by not selling out and their legal justification covered by continuing to search until they find an investment banker who will sign off on their high end "fair" sales price - thus eleminating the sale of the company for a lower "fair" price.
Most of the time, we'll never know - just have to take it on blind faith. All I'm suggesting here is, the law gives you only a little bit of protection because of the objectivity "allowance." Having said that, let me say I think the law is fine. Tighter definitions would not be workable, IMHO.
There I go again - talking about something I really know little about! Please disregard....
Using the shortest time frame of 10 years, BB&T will only have to average 13.4% increase in share price a year to reach $79. That is well within the historical averages for BB&T wealth generation and should not be too difficult considering the lowered PE ratio that is the result of the last four years of flat shareprices.