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  • normlasky normlasky Aug 12, 2010 8:56 PM Flag

    Shrinking Asset Base = Trouble

    In case you haven't noticed loans for most banks have been shrinking. In general bbt has been doing much better than competition. The bank continues to grow its c&i, specialized lending and finance loans. They are intentionally shrinking their adc portfolio and lot loans and last qtr. actually grew their loans excluded adc. Not too many banks achieved that in the qtr.

    You say that "it's not about charge-offs". Baloney. Last quarter bad loans cost bbt $890 million or roughly 360 bsp annualized which is 7 times higher than their historic average.

    Your entitled to your opinions but I think you are not well informed. You might want to read the banks financials more closely.

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    • Charge offs are already factored into banks' share prices. This is old news. The focus for institutional investors is no longer balance sheet repair, but loan origination, NIM and fee growth. The other poster confirms my previous remarks (I too have talked with folks); they are not getting the originations they need to make the financial calculus work, so either loans role to maturity and/or refi and the borrower goes someplace else (and takes deposits away) or the bank keeps the relationship and re-lends. The problem is BB&T has never in the past 30 years liked to lend at market rates, they dont like the risk (or cant correctly quantify the credit risk to their own cost of funding).
      Consumers are much more savy this time around. Are other banks' balance sheets wasting...yes, if you are a legacy lender like BB&T, but there are many new players in the arena these days, both banks and large private lenders who are filling the void and are unencumbered with legacy garbage. They are lending at phenom levels. The lesson is that balance sheet repair will not push this stock to $70. It wont; they have to grow and put money to the bottom line. BB&T had a golden opportunity to double its balance sheet in the past 20 mos; they could have stepped in and filled a much needed hole in the credit markets, expanded their footprint, enter new lines of corporate and commercial lending, but they didn't. They bought Colonial...whoopeee. This stock may end up trading the same way it did for nearly a decade prior to the recession...just bouncing in a range based on the yield. No explosive share growth with this strategy.

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