ECRI told cnn money on 9/30/11 that recession was imminent. Achuthan, their chief economist, said the US had entered into recession in the 3rd qtr. 2011 or would be going into recession in the 4th qtr. 2011.
Here we are 7 months after the fact. Added 1 million plus jobs. Consumption expenditures in the 1st qtr. 2012 were up almost 3% from 4th qtr. Car sales are booming. Freight excluding coal and grain is up 6% ytd. Intermodal is up 3% ytd. S&P 500 profits are close to record highs. Banks are doing ok. Yep, Achuthan really nailed it.
ECRI economic model is proprietary so it is not possible to analyze their forecasts. We're all entitled to our opinions but I think only a fool would be praising ecri predictive abilities.
From what I've read, they're the laughing stock of the economic community.
That's not to say I'm a bull right now. I'm 44% cash and have sold covered calls on about 1/3 of my portfolio. Think it's likely that markets will be volatile driven largely by weak economies in europe and the threat of default.
Bbt is a core holding. I think in 2013 they'll make $4 plus per share.