Is BBK a take over play? I don't think the odds
are very good. With STI being hammered for a 30%
(supposedly) premium deal, as the trend has gone, I do not
believe that the bigs are too excited about following
suit, and having their stock price pummeled. The market
is not very friendly to true acquisitions at this
point, and the take out multiples a coming down, as
clearly evidenced in the community banking arena. Look at
National Commerce this past week. They couldn't even find
a buyer, and had to take themselves off the market.
Used to be that you could sell in a weekend. They only
had 3 banks even interested, and only Fifth Third bid
(at a Walmart price). And they are a decent bank.
So...have we seen the beginning of the end of the
consolidation wave for now. Well, my opinion is that high
performing banks like BBK are somewhat untouchable until
their price falls nearer 2.85 - 3.0 x book, or, as
Stockboy II noted, management sees a wall in terms of
growth, margins, and/or efficency. Come on, they are
trading at 3.8 x book now. The market wouldn't allow more
than 4.5x book, or else the acquirer would likely
experience an STI/CF replay. Would BBK sell for less than a
single multiple (less than $8 / sh. gain)? I just can't
Just my opinion, but the trend has
Good thoughts regarding STI. I have always
admired the STI group and feel they will be successful in
the long run. Maybe timing just wasn't right for the
CF deal - whatever - it just doesn't seem to fit
well. Wish I could explain further, but really can't
formulate it. The folks in Virginia love CF and are quite
leery of STI. But then again, they are leery of most
banks coming in from the outside.
Living to 100
- YUK! But thanks for the thought
TrustSTI- Good luck with all your investments and may we
both end up rich in life and financially!
Thanks for the clarification. As to STI, I think
I have the same feeling for the future of that
organization as you seem to have for BBK. You are correct that
the CF shareholders seem dissatisfied. That is if the
postings on their board is truly indicative of all CF
shareholders. I felt the same way when the bank I worked for
was acquired by STI. The merger will happen and CF
holders will be well rewarded. STI is an unknown to CF
folks and most of the readily accessible info doesn't
tell all. As for an STI-BBK merger, I think
geographics and management philosophy are strong incentives
as I don't think an STI-WB can happen after Crestar.
Live long and prosper. I'll bet you make to 100.
Thank you for your response, and I agree with
you. We all have different time horizons, investment
objectives, and maybe LOTS of BBT shareholders would like a
buyout so they can reap their rewards quickly.
think I will live to 90, so i want our bank to grow the
old fashioned way, BUY everyone else out before you
Thanks for your
bantering on the board readum.
No, of course I believed the intention of STI was
to grow the bank.
My point was (and terribly
made, i aplogize) was that you can grow the bank
through acqusitions such as main street bank, Scott and
stringfellow, or you could get bought out, and throw caution to
the wind hoping it will pay off for us the
shareholders. I like the bank growing concept. I belive there
is a much BIGGER payoff eventually, rather than a
quick spike, and then hope the new bank succeeds. We
are proven now!
I am not convinced that the
merger of ST-CF was/is a good thing for either bank. I
also don't think the shareholders of CF agree that it
is. Just my opinion.
Tell me more about why
STI-BBT would be good?
The end IS probably here for rediculous
multiples, except the real reason is that the big boys have
lost the trump card in getting the deals done. That
would be their own stocks at rediculous levels. The
further bank stocks fall, the lower the multiples they
are able to pay.
Noticed your rather bearish comments on bank
mergers in the future. What do you consider a redicules
mutltiple? The way I see the deal between BBK and MSBC it
was at 3.25 times book or about a 50% premium over
their closing price yesterday. Looks like a premium
price to me. If CAFC were sold at 3.25 times book the
sales price would be about $46.00 and CAFC is currently
selling at about $21. That too would be a good multiple.
I don't think banks hey days are over yet. (They
might be dented if the market keeps