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Omeros Corporation Message Board

  • Dooper55 Dooper55 Jul 26, 2012 1:49 PM Flag

    SeekingAlpha article re OMER

    This came out today ....

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/750891-5-momentum-stocks-with-pullbacks-that-could-be-your-opportunity?source=yahoo

    It presented both bullish and bearish observations about OMER and someone asked me about it on another message board (Investor Village). I responded with the following, though here, I've added an additional comment about OMS103HP's potential.

    I'm not sure what the author is referring to when he says OMER's balance sheet is a mess. Clearly, those who put over $30,000,000 into OMER's hands at $10.25/share recently didn't do it blindly. That boosted OMER's cash to a level that'll support their burn rate for a year and a half ...... a period during which several very positive events can occur: Phase III results on OMS103HP and OMS302, Phase I results on OMS824 and (IMO) a sale or licensure deal involving a GPCR.

    As of the end of Q1 2012, they had an accumulated deficit of $185 million, Considering the breadth, depth and progress in their pipeline, I have a hard time calling them inefficient.

    Their ability to bring in funding from diverse, high quality individuals and organizations while maintaining control and ownership of their intellectual property is impressive.

    I believe their GPCR program is: a) poorly understood, b) seriously underappreciated and c) going to provide some very surprising positives.

    If I had to name one thing that concerns me at Omeros, it'd be the OMS103HP Phase III meniscectomy trial. OMS103HP produced inconclusive results in ACL surgery last year and that hammered the stock. Now we're awaiting its results in the meniscectomy trial. I believe the trial protocol has been vastly improved compared to that used in the ACL trials and the results SHOULD be favorable. But we won't know for sure until the results are read out, perhaps very shortly.

    Added comment: If OMS103HP performs well and gets FDA approval, I believe it will be used in MANY surgeries where its ability to reduce inflammation and pain can be very beneficial. Think feet, knees, hips, abdomens, chests, necks, spines, shoulders, elbows, wrists, hands ......

    Bottom line? I think the recent "swoon" was way overdone and represented an extraordinary buying opportunity. It makes no sense that the balance-sheet-strengthening placement at $10.25 would trigger a share price drop to 15%+ below $10.25 ...... and the stock is still selling at a nice discount to $10.25.

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    • Nice recap, Dooper. I've listened to the recent investor presentations and it seems like the OMS302 results and approval should be a slam dunk - do you have any thoughts on the revenue potential for that drug? They have spoke of the lens replacement market at 3 million procedures per year, so even at $200 per procedure, it is substantial?

      With respect to the GPCR program, it sounds interesting, but it is not clear how they will monetize the discoveries. They seem to brag about how many new targets/drugs they are uncovering, but not much about what they are going to do with them?

      • 1 Reply to tredleon
      • tredleon, I've heard and read a wide variety of estimates re potential OMS302 revenue. I think it'll come down to dollars per share per year .... plural on dollars. Dr. Alan Crandall is the dean of surgeons in this field (he's written multiple books on the topic) and he has said he believes OMS302 will be widely accepted, or words to that effect. I think OMS302 will penetrate a very high percentage of lens replacement surgeries simply because predictably prolonging dilation will "take the heat off" the surgical timeline. That will produce statistically significant positive outcomes in lens replacement surgeries.

        Re GPCRs, the best ones they unlock will open significant drug development pathways. Such GPCRs may bring tens or hundreds of millions of dollars ..... each .... in the pharmaceutical marketplace. Try those numbers on for size at a company with ~26,000,000 shares outstanding. And several dozen unlocked GPCRs.

        Have a good weekend, everybody.

 
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