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  • pukealo pukealo Jan 12, 2013 4:12 PM Flag

    Why should I buy OMER now?

    I was just reading the 10K and latest 10Q trying to determine if it's a good buy.
    The negatives:
    One of their two late stage drugs failed.
    Burn rate is high - $30M for the 9 months ended Sept.
    Cash on hand is $30M and debt is $15M. The current portion of the debt is $6M.
    There will probably be more dilution in Q2.
    The positives:
    The trial results on the other late stage drug are apparently encouraging.
    An insider bought some shares recently.

    The deciding factor would be the size of the market for their late stage drug to be used by lens surgery patients. Does anybody know?

    The stock that I really like is TTNP. They have a micro implant to treat addiction. Millions are addicted to pain meds and illicit drugs. The US market alone is $1.5B and growing. The PDUFA date is April 30. Approval triggers a $50M milestone payment to TTNP. Priority review and the use of an already approved drug in their implant makes approval almost a certainty.

    Good luck.

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    • Your analysis is weak - first off, the knee surgery drug trial did not "fail" - there a number of ways to #$%$ the impact of a drug on inflammation and pain - they chose a measurement that did well in the Phase II as the primary endpoint (the KOOS scale), while using more traditional measurements as secondary endpoints. The primary endpoint scale was not statistically significant (but all measures positive for the treatment group) while the secondary endpoints were statistically significant. There were always two Phase III trials planned, so the issue is whether the FDA will allow the secondary endpoints of the first trial to be used as the primary endpoint and/or whether the combined results for both trials on the KOOS scale will be statistically significant - either way, this drug cannot be classified as a "failure" at this stage. Second, the results on their lead drug candidate (the lens replacement drug) were not "encouraging", they were a slam dunk - two Phase III trials that generated consistent off the charts statistically significant efficacy with absolutely no safety issues. Wedbush (see the post recapping their report on this board on 12/29) estimates the potential market for this drug at $600M - the NDA will be filed in Q2 and approval will come probably by year-end. Potential dilution is definitely an issue, but they have the opportunity to partner some other programs over the next 6 months that would avoid that dilution until the lens replacement drug is approved. Finally, you have 4-5 legitimate analysts that have strong buy opinions on this stock with price targets between $15 and $20.

    • I am high on OMER. I love TTNP as well. I own both in my portfolio & am hoping for significant upside in both before the end of the year.

      Sentiment: Buy

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