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  • tredleon tredleon Jan 13, 2013 10:59 AM Flag

    Why should I buy OMER now?

    Your analysis is weak - first off, the knee surgery drug trial did not "fail" - there a number of ways to #$%$ the impact of a drug on inflammation and pain - they chose a measurement that did well in the Phase II as the primary endpoint (the KOOS scale), while using more traditional measurements as secondary endpoints. The primary endpoint scale was not statistically significant (but all measures positive for the treatment group) while the secondary endpoints were statistically significant. There were always two Phase III trials planned, so the issue is whether the FDA will allow the secondary endpoints of the first trial to be used as the primary endpoint and/or whether the combined results for both trials on the KOOS scale will be statistically significant - either way, this drug cannot be classified as a "failure" at this stage. Second, the results on their lead drug candidate (the lens replacement drug) were not "encouraging", they were a slam dunk - two Phase III trials that generated consistent off the charts statistically significant efficacy with absolutely no safety issues. Wedbush (see the post recapping their report on this board on 12/29) estimates the potential market for this drug at $600M - the NDA will be filed in Q2 and approval will come probably by year-end. Potential dilution is definitely an issue, but they have the opportunity to partner some other programs over the next 6 months that would avoid that dilution until the lens replacement drug is approved. Finally, you have 4-5 legitimate analysts that have strong buy opinions on this stock with price targets between $15 and $20.

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