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Omeros Corporation Message Board

  • lovesurfergirl lovesurfergirl Jan 12, 2013 3:55 AM Flag

    Why should I buy OMER now?

    I'm thinking of buying in. Why are you guys long here?

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • ...why long????...seriously?...wouldn't "why short" be a more intelligent queation?...

      ...well, let's see...first, they're trying to develop a product that nobody wants -- i.e. a witches brew of ingredients to be used as an irrigation fluid -- because there are either drugs already available that accomplish the same alleged goals at likely much cheaper prices...

      ...second, the "witches brew" so far has not even demonstrated that it's particularly effective at doing what it claims -- as demonstrated by the phase 3 failures...

      ...third, a recent 8k announced the company intends to sell 60 MILLION DOLLARS worth of its stock...not only that, but it claims the right to sell this stock ANY time it pleases and at ANY price it desires...think in terms of a large sharp object hanging over the stock price ready to fall at management's whim...

      ...fourth, another recent 8k announced that the company has ADDED to their debt load and now has borrowed 20 MILLION dollars on which they pay 9.25% and which carries a prepayment penalty to boot!...

      ...hoo boy!...the only thing that'll salvage this company's stock is a good PR firm!...but in the wonderful world of biotech, that's mostly what it's all about anyway, right?...HAW, HAW, HAW!!!...

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 1 Reply to rrtzrealmd
      • Wow - I've never seen such enthusiasm over ignorant comments. Phase III "failures" - of the three phase III trials the company has completed, the two lens replacement trials have had over-the-top positive results and the knee surgery trial had mixed results. Please provide us with the competing drugs that are cheaper and more effective than the company's "witches brew" - you don't even know the pricing that the lens replacement drug will be, but you know that there are cheaper drugs? If having a shelf registration in place was the reason to sell/avoid a company's stock, then not many small-cap biotechs, who are always needing to raise money, would be worth buying. The debt raise is a good thing - obviously the lender is looking at the lens replacement trial/pending NDA & launch as reason to advance additional funds - again, most small cap biotechs would love to be able to borrow money at 9.25%, instead of pushing further dilution on their shareholders, but for you it is a negative - just proves your ignorance!

    • I was just reading the 10K and latest 10Q trying to determine if it's a good buy.
      The negatives:
      One of their two late stage drugs failed.
      Burn rate is high - $30M for the 9 months ended Sept.
      Cash on hand is $30M and debt is $15M. The current portion of the debt is $6M.
      There will probably be more dilution in Q2.
      The positives:
      The trial results on the other late stage drug are apparently encouraging.
      An insider bought some shares recently.

      The deciding factor would be the size of the market for their late stage drug to be used by lens surgery patients. Does anybody know?

      The stock that I really like is TTNP. They have a micro implant to treat addiction. Millions are addicted to pain meds and illicit drugs. The US market alone is $1.5B and growing. The PDUFA date is April 30. Approval triggers a $50M milestone payment to TTNP. Priority review and the use of an already approved drug in their implant makes approval almost a certainty.

      Good luck.

      • 2 Replies to pukealo
      • I am high on OMER. I love TTNP as well. I own both in my portfolio & am hoping for significant upside in both before the end of the year.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Your analysis is weak - first off, the knee surgery drug trial did not "fail" - there a number of ways to #$%$ the impact of a drug on inflammation and pain - they chose a measurement that did well in the Phase II as the primary endpoint (the KOOS scale), while using more traditional measurements as secondary endpoints. The primary endpoint scale was not statistically significant (but all measures positive for the treatment group) while the secondary endpoints were statistically significant. There were always two Phase III trials planned, so the issue is whether the FDA will allow the secondary endpoints of the first trial to be used as the primary endpoint and/or whether the combined results for both trials on the KOOS scale will be statistically significant - either way, this drug cannot be classified as a "failure" at this stage. Second, the results on their lead drug candidate (the lens replacement drug) were not "encouraging", they were a slam dunk - two Phase III trials that generated consistent off the charts statistically significant efficacy with absolutely no safety issues. Wedbush (see the post recapping their report on this board on 12/29) estimates the potential market for this drug at $600M - the NDA will be filed in Q2 and approval will come probably by year-end. Potential dilution is definitely an issue, but they have the opportunity to partner some other programs over the next 6 months that would avoid that dilution until the lens replacement drug is approved. Finally, you have 4-5 legitimate analysts that have strong buy opinions on this stock with price targets between $15 and $20.

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