The insiders didn' need to get bigger but they did, and like I said, First Niagara is not going unnoticed form being a small hometown farmers bank to the powerhouse cash and loan heavy bank it is today. It would benefit a larger financial like a Wells Fargo or Canadian Nank to aquire them.
The person I spoke to who was at the headquarters on anonymity said he see's this happening.
US Bank will take this bank out very quickly...as they need the footprint and can afford to overpay. However; they needed FNFG to complete the last purchase so Key, M&T and others didn't see them coming. Now USB will come in for the kill
I think the adage, "banks aren't bought, they're sold" applies here. Whether USB or some other big fish would like to swallow FNFG lilely will not matter if FNFG's management & board don't want to sell. My guess is that they've convinced themselves that they have constructed a platform for growth & that they can match, or exceed, any buyout premium through organic growth.
I'm not confident that they can or will, but it's what they think that matters.
A buyout would be an unexpected but pleasant surprise. problem is, I can't see them selling for less than $12/sh and that's a long way from today's price. But, heck, I'd be happy with $11 right now.
I agree wholeheartedly but I don't see either making a move for fnfg until economic times are robust and fnfg has fully digested its current meal.
IMHO, fnfg is a very low risk/high reward stock @$7.30 and I am happy to have my money invested in them. Of course, my cost basis is about $8.00. Short of a world-wide economic catastrophe, I expect an aggregate return of 30% - 50% from here over the next 2-3 years. That is good enough for me.
Listen infidel, major national and or regional banks do not make a healthy, profitable go of it in Buffalo and WNY. C & JPM got their butts kicked and left; HSBC dropped out. BAC is still here but low on the totem pole as are Citizens & Key.
If you think the management of Wells is dumber than the management of FNFG, then think again. Why would they want to take a whipping? And a Canadian Bank? They had the potential & opportunity to buy the HSBC branches. Guess what? They did NOT do that. So, why would they go after FNFG?
MTB can sit back & watch the implosion and profit from it if the board at FNFG has no balls to make tough decisions.
All my humble opinion of course...ha ha ha
Oh, when my money leaves FNFG, it'll be past the "retention rate" time but guess what, it'll be just as gone.
FNFG isn't going to be bought by a Chase or the like. It's in a process of merging larger and larger not being bought by a Citibank. Think of merging with a neighboring growing regional.
FNFG is not a western NY bank either. Change your perspective and you'll see the future.