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Fossil Group, Inc. Message Board

  • aykayeh aykayeh Nov 9, 1999 10:14 PM Flag

    Street's expected eps?

    There's an item from earlier in the day on the
    cnbc site reporting that fossil missed the street's
    expectation. Anybody know the facts? When I took a quick look
    it seemed to me that the 'street' expected .36 and
    fosl turned in .39. An item later in the day with
    virtually the same headline simply notes that fosl went
    down, and doesn't mention the detail about missing
    expectations. Could there have been some mistake between
    expected earnings and actual?


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    • Jeff, I accumulated more but at a higher
      than this. Well, I still think
      any company that is
      growing at this pace
      should be performing better than
      I think we'll see good growth. Great time

      to buy.

    • If market expect greater growth, why they only expect .36 for Q3 earnning?

    • Unfortunately, we have seen this kind of price
      action before. Remember, the stock fell to 9 (split
      adjusted) last fall, at which time the company bought back
      shares to support price. Clearly, their performance
      during 1998 showed that such a selloff was unwarranted.
      Hopefully we see the same this year.

      As was
      mentioned, this is seemingly a great time to pick up more if
      you like this company. A strong Q4 is already in the
      bag; whether it be of blowout proportions remains to
      be seen. PE is now down to 15, and price to sales is
      well under 2. I may add more to the shares I bought
      yesterday at 24 1/2.

      This does show why it's good to
      have a diversified portfolio. This summer, FOSL was
      driving my portfolio. Now, my techs are doing it. Anyway,
      I feel good that we'll get some good returns at
      buying at these levels.


    • Doesn't Investors Business Daily rely in large
      part on price action to determine their
      recommendations? Once the selling begins, the stock becomes less
      attractive - the opposite of how investors (as opposed to
      speculators) think. I am fairly confident that business
      performance like FOSL's will get the stock back up, and then
      some. I can't imagine another scenario over any
      reasonable period of time.

    • When a large block goes through and drops the
      price, stop sells are triggered dumping huge amounts to
      the market side dropping the price even further. That
      is normally the reason for a major selloff when
      there is no explanation visible. The only question
      remains and normally is never answered, "Why did the
      institution sell in the first place". Wishing the best to all
      and stay patient...GOD Bless

    • I do not think that market manipulation could
      explain a drop of this magnitude. My gut says that this
      is a larger problem related to previous post on
      earnings growth. Perhaps the growth is not sufficient for
      the institutional crowd. Investors Business has not
      shown Accumulation of A for FOSL for several months.
      Was at C for a while, was back up to B of late. Still
      seems cheap to me, but these reactions to earnings
      growth would seem to dampen prospects for next quarter
      or so. Thoughts?

    • Makes sense to me if it works out that way :-)

    • If a money maker wants to make good profits out
      of a stock, after evaluating the fundamentals and
      decides that there is good potential on that stocks. How
      do you think this MM is going to do in order to load
      up shares cheap? Maybe, he will try to dump several
      blocks first to create sell presure. Take fosl as
      example, maybe they will sell blocks at 26 with a solid
      report. Then people become frickle and start dump their
      shares and the price keep dragging down. Then the MM
      starts buying shares to increase their position at 24,
      23, and 22. After they accumulate enough, maybe
      upgrates, reiterating buy rating and all those good staff
      start coming up. And people will jump in to buy the
      shares like crazy. Does it make sense?

    • IMHO, sell-offs like this are golden opportunities for small investors to make money. This price is a gift. Take it and don't worry about it. It's your reward for paying attention.

    • I am not 100% sure this is what's going on. But
      watch closely next few days. If you read their
      announcement yesterday, CFO sounded very optimistic and
      confident about the forthcoming quater. For any ordinary
      investor, just ask yourself a question, will you sell your
      shares after reading that earnning report? Someone is
      trying to create the momentum to shake out those short
      hands (my opinion, of course) and loading up the
      shares. Unless, it is like some post says, there's
      something been hidden. But for a public company, don't you
      think they are obligated to let the shareholder be
      aware of it?

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