A very good lecture on the mitworld distributed intelligence web site; "Critical issues and grand challenges" the section by Dr. Steven E. Koonin is very interesting. one quote from Dr. Koonin: "nobody uses less energy as they get richer". He made that comment when talking about the large new growth for energy coming in developing nations as they get wealthier. Talks about energy poverty and how there are already 2 billion potential new consumers that use so little or no energy, and they could start to make new demand as economy imporves. Says 30% new demand by 2030. So long term is very strong for oil and gas.
This is based on fundamentals no weight given to the political use of oil and loss of access. short term oil looks to weaken but one must remember Iran or Venezuela might heat up at any time. I think China and India and to a lesser extent Eastern Europe and Africa have seen the importance of energy to bring their standard of living up. added to this one never really knows if Saudi oil reserves are as big as some might suggest. I think buying at least some oil and gas on this next coming dip makes a lot of sense. jmho
Its just a question of buying oil stocks like this one on a dip or some sort of bottom. It looks like we might see a short term bottom in oil before winter, but any short term prediction is little more than a guess. Given that the shoulder season and summer driving season will be coming to an end in a month might be good time to pick up some oil and gas on that weakness.