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Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • ninhp32809 ninhp32809 Jan 12, 2011 6:11 PM Flag

    Comment from Prohost Biotech with ARIAD GETS GOOD NEWS.

    FROM : Prohost Biotech

    The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) is the mechanistic target of rapamycin or FK506 binding protein 12-rapamycin associated protein 1 (FRAP1. It is involved in regulating cell growth, cell proliferation, mortality, survival, protein synthesis and transcription.

    Specialized oncologists expect inhibitors of this protein could become therapeutics for a variety of tumors, regardless of their origin. Most recently, mTOR has been found to act as an ATP sensor that regulates cell growth, and researchers believe that mTOR inhibition would block upstream activation of PI 3 kinase activity; activation of this protein is believed to lead to oncogenic transformation.

    The speculation about the wide therapeutic efficacy of mTOR inhibitors in various tumors is currently being validated following the approval and marketing of mTOR inhibitor drugs for cancers.

    For example, since the approval of Afinitor for kidney cancer, the product has been approved for subependymal giant cell astrocytoma (SEGA) in cases where surgery cannot be performed. The disease is a rare genetic disorder associated with tuberous sclerosis (TS), which causes benign (non-cancerous) tumors to grow in the brain and in other parts of the body. It grows also in the eyes, lungs, liver, heart, skin and kidneys. TS occurs as a result of genetic mutations that lead to the development of tumors and results in learning and developmental disabilities, skin abnormalities, seizures, and lung and kidney disease.

    All this might look unrelated to what mTOR inhitor can generate in revenues; nonetheless we can say these drugs would start as high as a billion and multiply over time. What helped us reach this conclusion was learning that Joe Jimenez, head of Novartis Pharmaceuticals, the owner of mTOR inhibitor Afinitor, told Reuters about the potential of the drug sales. Joe said: "We believe that this drug has the potential to be a blockbuster and that's before we even get to breast cancer, gastric cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. This will be a substantial drug for Novartis."

    In the meantime, we witnessed the FDA green light for Afinitor use in patients who have failed to respond to Pfizer’s drug Sutent and Onyx Pharmaceuticals’s drug Nexavar for RCC.

    As we mentioned in Prohost article, “Ariad Gets Good News on Its Endometrial Cancer Drug”, many scientists believe that the longer half-life of Ariad’s mTOR inhibitor ridaforolimus gives it an advantage over other mTOR inhibitors.

    Added to the fact that endometrial cancer is the most common cancer of the female reproductive system and its advanced cases have virtually no effective treatments, we are tilted to believe that if Ariad’s ridaforolimus is approved, the drug’s market penetration would be strong, probably over $1 billion in the first year. The revenues are expected to double in the second year. Adding the revenues expected from additional approvals of the drug for other cancers, total revenues could reach $3-$4 billion in sales in 2015.

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    • If the REvs come in like your pasted article expects, than ARIADs share price value should look like this.

      1st year after approval
      1 billion in revs / 126 miilion outstanding shares = 7.93 dollars rev/per share

      Multiply that $7.93 by ARIADs present P/revs of something like 3.5 and you get $27.77 per share.

      Double that share price in year two due to 2 billion in revenues. $55.55 per share .

      Triple that $7.93 by 3x's when ARIAD is driving 3 billion dollars in revenues, and you get what? $83.325 per share.

      Don't forget that the article projected 3 to 4 billion in revs by 2015. So my 3 billion by then is a conservative estimate.

    • FROM : Prohost Biotech

      The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) is the mechanistic target of rapamycin or FK506 binding protein 12-rapamycin associated protein 1 (FRAP1. It is involved in regulating cell growth, cell proliferation, mortality, survival, protein synthesis and transcription.

      Specialized oncologists expect inhibitors of this protein could become therapeutics for a variety of tumors, regardless of their origin. Most recently, mTOR has been found to act as an ATP sensor that regulates cell growth, and researchers believe that mTOR inhibition would block upstream activation of PI 3 kinase activity; activation of this protein is believed to lead to oncogenic transformation.

      The speculation about the wide therapeutic efficacy of mTOR inhibitors in various tumors is currently being validated following the approval and marketing of mTOR inhibitor drugs for cancers.

      For example, since the approval of Afinitor for kidney cancer, the product has been approved for subependymal giant cell astrocytoma (SEGA) in cases where surgery cannot be performed. The disease is a rare genetic disorder associated with tuberous sclerosis (TS), which causes benign (non-cancerous) tumors to grow in the brain and in other parts of the body. It grows also in the eyes, lungs, liver, heart, skin and kidneys. TS occurs as a result of genetic mutations that lead to the development of tumors and results in learning and developmental disabilities, skin abnormalities, seizures, and lung and kidney disease.

      All this might look unrelated to what mTOR inhitor can generate in revenues; nonetheless we can say these drugs would start as high as a billion and multiply over time. What helped us reach this conclusion was learning that Joe Jimenez, head of Novartis Pharmaceuticals, the owner of mTOR inhibitor Afinitor, told Reuters about the potential of the drug sales. Joe said: "We believe that this drug has the potential to be a blockbuster and that's before we even get to breast cancer, gastric cancer and non-small cell lung cancer. This will be a substantial drug for Novartis."

      In the meantime, we witnessed the FDA green light for Afinitor use in patients who have failed to respond to Pfizer’s drug Sutent and Onyx Pharmaceuticals’s drug Nexavar for RCC.

      As we mentioned in Prohost article, “Ariad Gets Good News on Its Endometrial Cancer Drug”, many scientists believe that the longer half-life of Ariad’s mTOR inhibitor ridaforolimus gives it an advantage over other mTOR inhibitors.

      Added to the fact that endometrial cancer is the most common cancer of the female reproductive system and its advanced cases have virtually no effective treatments, we are tilted to believe that if Ariad’s ridaforolimus is approved, the drug’s market penetration would be strong, probably over $1 billion in the first year. The revenues are expected to double in the second year. Adding the revenues expected from additional approvals of the drug for other cancers, total revenues could reach $3-$4 billion in sales in 2015.

    • Revlimid/Carfilzomib/Dexamethasone Combo Tests Results so far so good. This research is funded by Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Celgene, Multiple Myeloma Research Consortium and the UMich Comprehensive Cancer Center.

      http://trialx.com/curetalk/2011/01/revlimidcarfilzomibdexamethasone-combo-test-results-so-far-so-good/

    • Hi Ninhp.
      We have in our hands a stock that will have a market cap in 2015 of something between 10 and 20 billions.
      Long and strong.
      Prepare your Remy Martin.
      Regards from Italy.

      111

 
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