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Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • spokesman_for_ariadinvestor spokesman_for_ariadinvestor Sep 20, 2013 7:57 AM Flag

    The Short Thesis‏ Publisher and "Dirty Drug Story" Forgery

    The latest publication of the publisher and the forgery is a very long article also talking about other stocks and only a short section is about Ariad. For your convenience, I am copying and pasting that paragraph as follows:

    {On Thursday, David Sobek rebutted the Ariad Pharmaceuticals' (ARIA_) short thesis that I explained in last week's Mailbag.
    Here's the rebuttal of the rebuttal from one of the investors shorting Ariad quoted in my piece:
    "If that's the other side of the story, I feel very comfortable with my [short] position" in Ariad, he says.

    Sobek's biggest blunder, this investor explains, is ignoring the time factor. The red flag in the Iclusig EPIC study is not that some patients with pre-existing heart conditions are excluded from enrollment, it's that Ariad decided to exclude more patients with heart problems after the study started.

    "Ariad saw something troublesome in the study that said the original assumptions were not sufficiently conservative," he says.}
    -- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston.
    No doubt,ARIA is heavily shorted. The short interest is now the heaviest in the history of this stock:

    ARIA short interest
    Settlement Date | Short Interest |Avg Daily Share Volume | Days To Cover
    8/30/2013 |18,442,253 |2,480,455 |7.435028
    12/31/2012 | 9,304,068 |3,156,163 |2.947905

    Nevertheless, the Year-to-Date gain is still positive (3.83%). Why? The institutional holding level is hodtorically the highest, too (84%).

    Goldman Sachs started to buy this year and it has become the 4th largest institutional holder although it rates ARIA as Neutral with the lowest price target.
    I bet the ARIA shorts will be burnt. I think I know Ariad more than the ARIA shorts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Don Shimoda @adamfeuerstein @dsobek: "lets wait till ASH and let the data decide, shall we.

      The trial change was in March..the DSMB has met regularly since then...where's the imbalance??

      how does enrolling pts with less CV risk increase the likelihood of a CV event?

      did anyone bother to even check and see what the trial changes actually were? (Updated 2013_03_27)

      @adamfeuerstein with his position down 25% in a couple of weeks, I'm not sure your short quite grasps the definition of "comfortable."
      David Sobek: "ARIA bears seem to misunderstand timing issue on protocol changes. They happened after black box warning."

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Why is it that a lot of people still believe Adam F. from the Street. His bogus articles should be condemn. He should be investigated by SEC if he is working with any hedgies in shorting pharmaceuticals in which he writes articles that are detrimental to those companies.

    • Don Shimoda
      @adamfeuerstein with his position down 25% in a couple of weeks, I'm not sure your short quite grasps the definition of "comfortable" $ARIA

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to ariad_investor
      • gregorio_allegri: FDA seems to be biased towards Novartis - by gregorio_allegri •Aug 6, 2013 5:04 PM

        "The other thing bothering me is that the FDA has made two decisions now that seem biased towards Novartis. Nilotinib and Ponatinib have similar side effect profiles yet only one has a black box after phase II registration trials lead to approval. Now the break-through designation denial. Call me paranoid, but this is the same Novartis recently in the news for giving doctors kick-backs and other gifts to switch to their medicines. AND of course there are billions on the line here for Novartis. This is a very big deal for them."

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Biomaven: "What that report misses is how much sicker the Pona patients generally were than the Sprycel/Tasigna patients".

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • What will happen to ARIA price when Goldman Sachs upgrades ARIA and raises its price target significantly after GS has accumulated/grabed enough the gold bags of ARIA shares?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • To pork's grandma (fake grandma_of_jbraikk): ARIA shares that I've been hoarding are bags for gold. They are not bags for rice. Thanks to your bashing it agian, ARIA is up again.
      Pork said honestly, "I am glad I loaded 60k at sub 1.00 and then unloaded at 15++ I made nearly a million." No sooner had pork loaded his 60k at sub 1.00 than he started to pump it. How? By bashing it.

      So pork had been bashing ARIA since he loaded 60k at sub 1.00 until he unloaded at 15++ and made his nearly a million .

      In order to pump it, pork bashed ARIA at sub 1.00+ because he had loaded his 60k at sub 1.00.
      He bashed the stock at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13 ,14 and 15+. The more pork bashed it , the higher ARIA went. Pork was not very greedy. So he unloaded at 15++ and made nearly a million.

      Well done, pork! Congratulations! Pork's pumping ARIA by bashing it really works.

      Why is pork bashing so hard now? I believe he has loaded 60K shares at sub 20. So pork is pumping very hard ARIA by bashing it again. He will keep bashing at sub 20, 30, ..., 280, 290 and 300+ until he unloads at 300++, making nearly 18 million.

      ARIA needs pork' bashing to go higher, which is why he has been pumping it by bashing it.

      We believe pork will do an even better job in pumping ARIA by bashing it.
      The more pork bashes, the higher ARIA will go. And the harder pork bashes, the higher ARIA will go.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to ariad_investor
      • Pork is the most honest pig in the world. He never lies. If pork says fake ariad_lnvestor is not pork, he is not lying. If pork says he is not his father's son, he is not lying, either. Pork said he loaded 60k at sub 1.00, and then unloaded at 15++ and made nearly a million. He was telling the truth, too.

        If anybody doubts pork's honesty, please ask pork's grandma (grandma_of_jbraikk), his hymen sister gloria, his colon brother Yitzakh or the colon's neighbor pastorgoodman40 for the truth

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I always pick up the gold bags of ARIA shares whenever the price is right to me. I have been accumulating the GOLD BAGS of ARIA SHARES since 1998 ($2 in 1998, $0.625-$1.25 in 1999, $0.8+ in 2008, $1.75-$2.20 in 2009, $3.8 in 2010). I bought ARIA at $0.81 even after I was laid off in 2008.
        Was $0.625 a cheap price? It depends on the time when people saw it and it depends on who saw it. The absolute bottom was much lower, only $0.50.
        Buying ARIA at $0.625 was very easy. Everybody could do it on that day. But different people took totally different actions.
        I, less smart than average and illiterate in biotech, bought ARIA at a high price of $0.625, seeing a big loss of 20% when ARIA bottomed at $0.50 while the smart traders who could time it were trading it and making profits. At the same time, the even smarter pork/fakes were being rewarded per their post and making HUGE money, cheering and basing that Ariad was going to go out of business.

        In 2011, I bought ARIA at $11.7, $8.5 and $7.7 on its way dropping from $13.5 to $7.6 while the weak hands were jumping off the train and I was calling for “Ride it Out!”
        I wrote covered calls against the shares bought in 08/2011 (unfortunately, ARIA was higher than the $15 strike price on the expiration day and I lost the shares though I made a handsome profit).
        Are the fakes impressed? Are they jealous? They do not need to be jealous. They could have chosen to do the same. Unfortunately, they have decided to be involved in the paid-per-post low-life business, bashing/faking us Ariad true longs.
        As pointed out by grandma_of_jbraika, the fakes and their Chrch would NOT attack me so desperately to make all the twists and confusions if they did not believe me."

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

10.25+0.05(+0.49%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT