I realize that until we get positive news from company a significant rise won't occur, however even with the worst of stocks, which i don't believe this is, a technical bounce occurs. what is your guess on when that will occur?
This is a good question and i think that if it were clearly going to bounce you'd see a trend upward today. I don't have a position in ARIA but I'd like to establish one if I thought there was a bounce. However, I think that I'm going to wait a bit- there are a lot of people out there on the margin that just got destroyed yesterday by the fall and I expect that they will be forced to sell tomorrow or monday.
There is no good news. In 2 years or so (not that this dog will still have cash in 2 years) there may be news on this redo of phase 3, but till then massive dilution will be necessary to make it that long.
"Oversold?" Hmmm.... funds buy biotech for potential (growth, new products, new uses for current products), not for cash flow. Was there a material event / news release that impacted future cash flow projections? Yes, negatively. Is the co making $ today? No, cash flow negative. Burn rate in 5-6 months to zero, likely to seek more investor money soon.
Any price 'overreaction' would likely be cleared up today and evidenced by a move upwards (didn't occur). Overall market is up yet this stock is down.
Stock wasn't heavily shorted so doubt one can rely on a short rally.
Sorry if you lost $ yesterday. Do you think the stock will run up to its previous price point in a matter of months? Do you think it has the same future potential as it did a week ago AND do you think institutions and hedge funds will share your view? If so, by all means, buy now and expect a return to the $20+ range.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
That's correct analysis of the ARIA stock pps dynamics now. The worst part is now the year-end tax-loss season is also just around the corner and folks have sizable gains elsewhere. To compensate (and reduce taxes) they'll sell this ARIA now, no matter what the price and book losses. That brings it closer to $2 range by Nov-end. Then, there might be a secondary announcement to get some funds for operations. That prospect alone, would bring it closer to a buck by mid-December. Then some late tax-loss sellers would wash off their hands, and may bring it below a buck in the last week of the year. That's when I plan to dip the toe slightly in the water and get some for the January-effect. Make about 15-20% quickly and say sayonara. But, we'll have to track this closely then, to do anything. All IMHO. Feel sorry for so many folks here who lost $ yesterday. Next, getting vibes that CELG might be sold off soon in the near future. Check it out.