ARIA will trade at btween $9 - $12/share if their mangement simply do the following:
- cut their staff to under 100 employees (yes, it's a massive cut, but why would they need more than this after terminateing all Iclusig-based clinical trials, right?) and focus all their resources to AP26113 clinical trial. By doing this this will reduce the R&D and other expense down to around $40mil per quarter.
- license Iclusig to other while marketing their own; and according today (10/21) analysts estimate Ariad will generates an estimate of $288mil/per year (= $300mil + $276mil/2) or $128mil (=288-160) $.70/share in earning per year or $.70/share. Given a reasonable/typical P/E of 13 for biotech, ARIA should be traded at $9/share.
- and if any positive development on AP26113 trial, a reasonable $3 should be added to the stock price and ARIA will be traded at around $12/share
Google "Dr. Camidge on AP26113 in Advanced Malignancies" to find the truth about the lung cancer candidate AP26113.
D. Ross Camidge, MD, PhD, Director, Thoracic Oncology Clinical Program, University of Colorado Cancer Center, discusses the updated results of a first-in-human dose-finding study of the ALK/EGFR inhibitor AP26113 in patients with advanced malignancies. Data were presented at the 2013 European Cancer Conference in Amsterdam.
AP26113, a second-generation ALK inhibitor, has the broadest spectrum of activity of any of the second-generation inhibitors in terms of the known resistance mutations, Camidge says.
AP26113 showed a 61% response rate in patients who are resistant to crizotinib, including one patient who was intolerant to crizotinib. Most interestingly, Camidge says, the study showed the agent had activity in brain metastases. The study showed that 8 out of 10 patients with active brain metastases were experiencing shrinkage following treatment with AP26113.