Which points to a setup for a squeeze. Spreads are huge.
Personally, I think your seeing AAPL setup for a run like GOOG's last week. The net reaction to UNREAL earnings was muted because the hedgies sold off to acquire the August calls on the cheap. Now, they will squeeze and put them deep into the money.
WRONG again, sport.
You have quite the track record.....for being DEAD WRONG.
You "attempt" to sound like such a genius in your posts.......it's hillarious.....just proves how STUPID you really are.
You have NO idea what you're talking about.
Just be the contrarian of you, and make a FORTUNE.
Go do the opposite of me and you'll lose a fortune. I sold my puts at $49 yesterday. I'm sitting today out. I want to see how high this goes. LULU is no longer my #1 target for further decline. Amazon and GMCR are better bets. Both are trading near 100X multiples. They've fallen, to be sure, but they have a long way to go.
If LULU rallies to $52.50 or higher, I will reestablish my position. In the meanwhile, I was in 80% cash when the market tanked. I hold 200 contracts of CSCO $13 Sept 17 calls. We'll see how that turns out..
Thanks. FWIW, the downtrend is just starting. The streaming business simply will not be that profitable. Strategically, NFLX is not nearly as strong as people assume. It does not own content. It does not even have exclusive right to content. It does not have unique technology (uses CDNs, GOOG owns Widevine DRM). It HAD loyal customers. Google/YouTube has A LOT more (check out YouTube.com/movies).
NFLX has masked it true economics for awhile. As light users cancel the DVD plan, it will get hit hard. It has a lot of people who paid without using the service. Those people were 100% margin. When they are gone, the average shipping intensity will increase, offsetting the price increase. Competition for content will drive that cost up. International markets won't be profitable for 2-3 years (Canada is already proving that). This is the beginning of the end for NFLX.
Thanks. I got crushed from April through early July. But, the tide has turned and I am making a killing. I also only hold stocks long that I truly believe have 25% more upside and will be resilient to domestic weakness (MNCs will international earnings and strong balance sheets).
I went deeper into the money on my NFLX puts just now. I am counting on at least one analyst exposing that the streaming business has much less activity than the story has been selling...
Shorts are an interesting group. Most only short on the way up. The only ones that short on an ongoing basis on the way down are the professional Hedge funds - some other shorts will do this, but it is the exception to the pattern. You usually see shorts getting out on the way down instead of shorting more.
I'm with you on this. I previously bought puts that expire in Sept. But they've been worth nothing for a long time so I've already written them off. In the interim switching to calls has paid off and I'm like you, sticking with expecting an increase until they miss. $1 - $5 decline isn't going to do it either, that's just enough for more shorts to jump on board and lose out when it goes back up this week.
Good luck. I wish all of you well. Making a killing on the AAPL and GOOG today. I think it is just the start. Look for CSCO to run into earnings and INTC to move up (I actually think the analysts are right that INTC will manufacture iPad4 and IPhone6 chips with the FINFET technology which will overcome the power/heat issues). ARMH is going to be hosed when it happens and INTC will shoot through the roof.
At this point, I am net $30K weighted toward puts. Added CRM and AMZN today. Now, have puts in LULU, NFLX, CRM and AMZN and calls in CSCO, INTC, AAPL and GOOG.
You are right where the option is taken at is what is important. It would seem that the puts are equal to the calls for August. This may be too simple of an explanation, but for now I don't think there is a direction or a setup for a squeeze as it should be more lopsided if there was to be a squeeze in either direction - my simple view.