IBM has stated a couple times now that they are 'well ahead' of their target for 2010 earnings of $10-$11 / share. Given that current estimates call for 2010 earnings of $10.71, you can take 'well ahead' to mean something north of $11. So apply a reasonable multiple of, say, 14, to $11/share, and that gets you a price of $154.
I'd like to think that also, but I don't think that the big money is ready to give that 14 p/e , if they don't to pay or hold at any price over say 12 p/e, then it's sell into strength and get their holdings down. I don't think that a p/e of 14 is outlandish and yes, earnings will be at least $11, but until the bigger picture of US and global economies get rolling, the p/e will be stingy here ,, adequate,but stingy, however in a few years, when the next euphoria hits, IBM will be higher than the rest ... later ... garce