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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • mr_dinky_dot_bomb mr_dinky_dot_bomb Jan 7, 2013 10:55 AM Flag

    Strong Dollar Will Hurt Multinational Revenue

    It would be better for IBM if the Euro and Yen were stronger or strengthening against the dollar. If the Euro was worth $1.35 - $1.40 it would be a nice tailwind for IBM and the billion $ hit IBM took in Q3 on revenue translation would flip to a gain +/- IBM's currency hedges. If we get austerity in the US in the form of more taxes and/or spending cuts the dollar should get stronger. I believe that's a big reason why IBM has stayed below the $200 level since Q3 was reported.

    I'm on the sidelines waiting to see how Q4 looks before I get back in IBM -- and I really would like to get back in for the LT. But I may be waiting for an entry point after the debt ceiling negotiations are over.

    Now may be the time to go long the dollar index unless there are no big spending cuts and the dollar weakens. Right now I wouldn't bet against the buck.

 
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