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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • blackcombgrouse blackcombgrouse Apr 2, 2013 1:12 AM Flag

    Trusting analyst - a fatal mistake

    Having experienced multiple market tops since my my first venture into stocks back in 1969 I feel it is important to warn newvbies in the stockmarket .
    By newbies I mean investor/speculators that have been in stocks for 10 years or less.
    One Mantra you keep hearing from today's analysts is how cheap stocks ar historically from a PE level .
    From every other measuire they are priced for not only perfection but priced as if the average consumer was in the best shape in history .
    What absolute nonsens , here are some examples of how expensive many stocks are .
    In the Dow transportation index which has led this 2013 rally by its most rocket like advance in history , there a stocks like UPS selling at 18 times its book value (or break up value)
    How does that comparte to last years Tech darling AAPL ?
    AAPL's price to book is 3.26 but it has an opraatinmargin of 25%
    UPS which after competes in a low profit margin business and has a 1.49% profit margin has a price to book of 17,25 or FIVE times as high as AAPL . How can Cramer tout UPS ?
    Either he is absolutely clueless at evaluating stock or there is something fishy going on .
    I left IBM t\ill last because it is even worse than UPS in some ways , since its TBV is minus $12.72 per share it is priced at $229 above its TGB , you work it out what the PB really is but is astronimcal .

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