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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

  • n59218 n59218 Apr 18, 2013 8:43 PM Flag

    Shorting IBM at 215 in March and covering at 197 AH was like taking a candy...

    Shorting IBM at 215 in March and covering at 197 AH was like taking a candy from a kid! All the signs were so obvious out there ... if you know how to look! Now, moving on with the "transit-moola" to the shorting-party in TGT next ... that selloff is just around the corner! (Also: EQIX and MON will be aggressively sold-off next).

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    • Hindsight is always 20-20, a trade without corroborating evidence. Here's a novel thought, predict where the pps will go from here. I suspect you will not reply, probably to busy stealing candy from kids.

      • 1 Reply to froznicehole
      • froznicehole: Chill out bud ... you'll be informed when the model generates the unmistakable signal. No system in the world is ready everyday and sufficient allowance in terms of time, must be given to "prime the pump and lubricate the parts" so to say, before the automata can predict with gt. than 93% accuracy. In the meanwhile, surfing the waves is recommended ... there are a zillion other fishes to look at in this wonderful market! Just salivating over one fish only, day-in and day-out, can make one loose perspective and miss out on other sure-shot opportunities, that are easy pickings ... just like, considering all the variables, going short in March at 215 here and covering at 197 was a relatively easy trade to make, after the system confirmations. No point in wasting time in an issue that is in a confirmed demil. zone. Barbell strategy rules the world!

    • You make it sound so easy, so deterministic. Obvious signs? Really? You really knew that IBM would miss earnings and that we would see a 5% - 10% decline...and that it would significantly recover, as IBM is almost $200 today? You timed your trading so that it was like "talking candy from a kid"?


      I've worked a lifetime at technology companies and on Wall Street. Equity derivatives. Trading. Bond analytics. Even financing insurance premiums. Believe me, even for institutions with near real time systems and risk analysis that drives trading, it isn't easy to make good money. Suffice it to say, Wall Street is littered with failures in short term trading...never mind day traders that go broke pretty quickly.

      Maybe you have more guts and intelligence than I do. I make my money value investing. It's fundamentals that drive me to buy companies like IBM...averaging in at low prices, patiently waiting for evaluations to normalize. I wish it were like taking candy from a baby, but it takes discipline & patience & time...even a little guts.

      Smart money buys IBM when it is at a fair or cheap value. That's the guts part. Warren Buffett did this with IBM. Most investors will be best served to do opposed to speculating on the basis of short term sentiment analysis, which is what you basically you seem to espouse.

      Best of luck. Something tells me you will need it...more than me.

      • 1 Reply to banmate7
      • banmate7: Agreed for the most part on your comments that are generic in nature ...
        and those are some sound-principles for avg. investors. No argument there.
        However, when it comes to specifics-- like an individual's years of mastering
        the technical and R/R analysis of a particular equity and its other co-relating
        variables, some significant over-performance can ensue on a consistent basis,
        which can be more than what can be attributed to the random-walk theory or luck.
        That's where, one expert's resulting-opinion can be perceived as an
        extremely-complex modeling-calculation by some one else, who is not exactly
        tuned-in to the particular dynamic and not operating "in the zone" at the time.
        Plus, you can't make an assumption that, some one is not backed by the
        processing-ability to solve gt. than 70 simultaneous differential equations
        on the variables of the pps-dynamic and years of tuning-in to the "art of
        interpretation" pre-earnings. Having said that, there are definite-times when one's
        systems are in such a state that they simply can not generate any signal, because
        of the opposing factors, that cancel each other out. For example, more than 80%
        of the time, you have to patiently sit on your hands as a trader and can't make any move.
        So, one's psychology should be harmonized perfectly with the vicissitudes of the
        combinations of the fundamental and technical factors of the issue at hand. And when
        someone's 4-trillion neurons are focused-in on a particular movement,
        constantly analyzing it, and co-relating with various incoming-signals, the soul,
        knowingly or unknowingly, become a defacto-expert, whose prediction-power can then
        come pretty-close to billion-dollar systems (for a very small-subset of the domain
        of course). Hence, to such a soul, it may feel something like a child's play, while
        on the other hand, it may be overwhelming amount of info. to manage for someone else.

    • sounds like you missed the best part ....

    • You were an idiot for covering AH, even the little kids you took candy from knew IBM was headed further south today. Such a genius trader, LOL.

    • But being short 2 shares won't get you but dinner at Panera's

    • zeeshan.fazal Apr 18, 2013 9:44 PM Flag

      Indeed a little more patience and you could have got 193 idiot.

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