Shorting IBM at 215 in March and covering at 197 AH was like taking a candy from a kid! All the signs were so obvious out there ... if you know how to look! Now, moving on with the "transit-moola" to the shorting-party in TGT next ... that selloff is just around the corner! (Also: EQIX and MON will be aggressively sold-off next).
Hindsight is always 20-20, a trade without corroborating evidence. Here's a novel thought, predict where the pps will go from here. I suspect you will not reply, probably to busy stealing candy from kids.
froznicehole: Chill out bud ... you'll be informed when the model generates the unmistakable signal. No system in the world is ready everyday and sufficient allowance in terms of time, must be given to "prime the pump and lubricate the parts" so to say, before the automata can predict with gt. than 93% accuracy. In the meanwhile, surfing the waves is recommended ... there are a zillion other fishes to look at in this wonderful market! Just salivating over one fish only, day-in and day-out, can make one loose perspective and miss out on other sure-shot opportunities, that are easy pickings ... just like, considering all the variables, going short in March at 215 here and covering at 197 was a relatively easy trade to make, after the system confirmations. No point in wasting time in an issue that is in a confirmed demil. zone. Barbell strategy rules the world!
You make it sound so easy, so cavalier...so deterministic. Obvious signs? Really? You really knew that IBM would miss earnings and that we would see a 5% - 10% decline...and that it would significantly recover, as IBM is almost $200 today? You timed your trading so that it was like "talking candy from a kid"?
I've worked a lifetime at technology companies and on Wall Street. Equity derivatives. Trading. Bond analytics. Even financing insurance premiums. Believe me, even for institutions with near real time systems and risk analysis that drives trading, it isn't easy to make good money. Suffice it to say, Wall Street is littered with failures in short term trading...never mind day traders that go broke pretty quickly.
Maybe you have more guts and intelligence than I do. I make my money value investing. It's fundamentals that drive me to buy companies like IBM...averaging in at low prices, patiently waiting for evaluations to normalize. I wish it were like taking candy from a baby, but it takes discipline & patience & time...even a little guts.
Smart money buys IBM when it is at a fair or cheap value. That's the guts part. Warren Buffett did this with IBM. Most investors will be best served to do similarly...as opposed to speculating on the basis of short term sentiment analysis, which is what you basically you seem to espouse.
Best of luck. Something tells me you will need it...more than me.
banmate7: Agreed for the most part on your comments that are generic in nature ...
and those are some sound-principles for avg. investors. No argument there.
However, when it comes to specifics-- like an individual's years of mastering
the technical and R/R analysis of a particular equity and its other co-relating
variables, some significant over-performance can ensue on a consistent basis,
which can be more than what can be attributed to the random-walk theory or luck.
That's where, one expert's resulting-opinion can be perceived as an
extremely-complex modeling-calculation by some one else, who is not exactly
tuned-in to the particular dynamic and not operating "in the zone" at the time.
Plus, you can't make an assumption that, some one is not backed by the
processing-ability to solve gt. than 70 simultaneous differential equations
on the variables of the pps-dynamic and years of tuning-in to the "art of
interpretation" pre-earnings. Having said that, there are definite-times when one's
systems are in such a state that they simply can not generate any signal, because
of the opposing factors, that cancel each other out. For example, more than 80%
of the time, you have to patiently sit on your hands as a trader and can't make any move.
So, one's psychology should be harmonized perfectly with the vicissitudes of the
combinations of the fundamental and technical factors of the issue at hand. And when
someone's 4-trillion neurons are focused-in on a particular movement,
constantly analyzing it, and co-relating with various incoming-signals, the soul,
knowingly or unknowingly, become a defacto-expert, whose prediction-power can then
come pretty-close to billion-dollar systems (for a very small-subset of the domain
of course). Hence, to such a soul, it may feel something like a child's play, while
on the other hand, it may be overwhelming amount of info. to manage for someone else.
yep, agreed 197-cover was a bit pre-mature, but I had better uses of the
moola at that time. Now, its higher than that .. so, on watch. Will look
for 2 dynamic in the next 6 months, for possibly two entries: 1) Vacillations
near 203-205 and/or 2) Breakdown below 189. Thank you for your nice comments all.
Excellent examples of present-day humanity! LoL! :-)