IT may well close up its already headed that
direction, and monday it could easily be up 20 points IBM
tends to do that,
it has a $275 target and I believe
it will beat that.
I recommend a
buy on IBM now.
IBM bolted higher the day after 4/99 earnings and
continued to rise. IBM has kept its gains since 4/99, and
CNBC began spouting off about IBM going into a new
earnings valuation - similar to the net stocks. For this
reason, I am expecting at least a mild pop after
is still going to rally nearthe close. I feel
there is a lot of downward pressure on the market as
well as the stock. The market makers must be
PBS had a special on how G. Soros
and others caused Thialand's currency to melt down.
The stock may close lower today but I doubt. Shake
and the little money people and then they will buy
everything up for a bargin. Well, I will be right there with
them on the ride up.
Ok, It ok to call it a
blue pig, I will not take offense. I know how people
get affectionate with a car or something, they give
it a pet name. I am banking on this pig growing into
a full grown boar. I hope this is a greedy little
pig. I hope this pig takes it gloves of as soon as the
consent decree is lifted and start kicking
This is by no means a response to your previous post.
It seemed as if you gave me an assignment in that
one. A response will require a bit more
By theWay, On the Aptiva ranking: I saw in one
publication that it was ranked 2nd behind Packard Bell and in
another publication 4th.
Do some profitable trade
for the rest of the day.
stkhldr equity as an important guide for buying
stock unless the price is below. then either numbers
wrong or you have a steal.
when i am in
different mood i try and explain why i call him louie the
liar. the shorthand is that the price of the stock is a
false one. it here largely because of the buyback size.
it is a major pump and dump.Yes. not like the penny
stock arena where it occurs over weeks or months. Bear
in mind that the Catholic church regarded the
insurance "guy", Martin frankel as their financial
Asharp decline in stkhldr equity is a red flag.
something not healthy.
First all earnings reports
(stock splits, contracts, i.e. "news" is only important
int he short term cause of the buying or selling they
create. prices move according to buying or selling of the
shares.this stock has been on volume steroids--company
buying. can it continue--it is self defeating. must be
unless business improves (dont give me eps, what are
total profits---they wont be up the same
percent---cause less shares---buyback) the result is that it
takes more money to buy the same shares. if
earnings(total) dont increase at same rate then must increase
borrowings or reduce buying. if reduce buying we get
withdrawal symptoms.(shaky stock)---more people take
profits. plummet.(increase in debt affects earningsto
decline cause debt must be fed.---interest
thanks for the concern bout physical health but i
recuperated from that. had to get more sleep for a few days.
fool day's trading, shopping,a little law work, then
posting--not a lot of sleep. and it seems when one gets older
you need more sleep.
I never liked to sleep
took away time from what was going on. but i enjoying
it now. should go back to sleep. posting at 2:40 a.m
will be up at 5 to check the world.
make a permanent commitment to this stock. it got to
pay the price for the buyback addiction.
good luck. i think it will push against 139
tomorrow---jump after earnings anncmt and then decline. that is
why i would sell tues. opening. I may do it with 200
shares just to see how my stomach reacts. I'll post if i
No doubt some of borrowings are to pay off
maturing debt--but they are issuing 5-15-30 year debt as
well as 2. and have been under the multiple shelf
registrations i referred to. Further evidence that they are
using "borrowed money" to buyback their stock is the
decline in the stkhldr equity. Given they have earnings
and pay only a fraction thereof in divs. the only way
the stkhldre eq. goes down is "writeoffs" (which they
had to stop cause of the regularity and accountants
saying that means earnings a lie---i.e. if it keeps
happening it is not an irregular event) and stock buyback
greater than earnings for the period involved.
you say and which i agree with. no one knows how
adversely it will affect them in the future but it is
definite significant error (imho)--affects their ability
to compete on product. the gerstener strategy as i
interpret his mouthings and actions is cant compete with
wintel (and dell)use their prods. mine reputation. push
stock up with massive cash---giving impression of
success. The emperor's new suit will eventually be seen
for what it is---no miracle cloth.
Yeah, I was wondering what happened to you. I
hope you are healing up just fine. We were considering
taking up a collection for a ransome. Sometimes you can
get so busy or come to the realization there is life
outside of this forum.
Now back to business, I
have a lots of catching up to do.
I would like
to think everyone behaved in my absence but boys
will be boys. This is not a sexist remark, nor am I
excluding the women who grace this forum.
said he would rather increase Shareholders' Value than
Shareholders' Equity. That is alright by me. Stock was down
anyways when Shareholders' Equity was up. Do you normally
use Shareholders' Equity as a basis for investing? I
do not. I use other financial measurables to
determine if Shareholders Value (Stock Price for this
discussion) will increase. Since I do not short a stock
currently, I have no interest in Shareholders' Value going
As far as the price mathmatics of what the selling
price paid for stock going into the ESOP (Employees'
Stock Option Plan) and the TDSP (Tax Deferred Saving
Plan)is, I do not have a clue. With the hugh volume
procured, I am sure they are not bought at market price but
at a hugh discount. Only small investors like me pay
Since Lou, Jr. is doing what he
said about Shareholders Value,i.e., increase it, I
think he is not a liar. Liars make excuses when what
they said does not pan out. He brought IBM back, where
is the lie?
Yes, the DUCK is on a roll. I
really do appreciate your input about the debt issue. I
shall not ignore it.
Get ready for a big earning
surprise of 20%, earning per share of $1.00 this quarter
will not surprise me.
Remember, take it easy on
the tennis court, it is just a game.
You are into MFST, right?
Okay Tek, once more. IBM issues debt instruments
with varying maturity dates, it even
says so in
their registrations, read them. When the debt issue
matures, it is paid off and, if
more debt is wanted by
the company, they issue more. The issue may be more
matured or it may be less, depending on
their need (wants). If they had $4B mature and
paid off this month and they issue $3B, their total
debt goes down by $1B, conversely,
if they had $3B
mature and they issue $4B, their debt goes up by $1B.
This is not really a
replacement. They also do
finance sales, as shown by their $705M 1Q99 revenues
Global Financing. If this is incorrect, please explain
Just another way of looking at things, in
1993 the total IBM debt, $27.3B was 45% of
revenues of $60.4B. In 1998, debt was $29.5B or 36% of
$81.6B in revenues.
Looking at it this way, the
amount of debt, as a % of revenues, has declined since
I never said or inferred that the debt was a good
thing or that it didn�t affect valuations or
prices. I merely disagree with you on the magnitude of
the effect. And I did post
previously about the
decline in stockholder equity. Again, looking at it a
the stockholder equity per share
in 93 was $17.18, in 98 it was $21.18, 93 figure
for the 2 for 1 split in 97. Could they have done
better? Of course. They also could have
done worse. I
still don�t think that any of this is going to cause
the demise of IBM by
2002, or any other time in
the near future. No one can predict with certainty
what is going
to happen in the future. We will see
in 3 years who was right about IBM, assuming
we both are still around (I plan on being here for a
long time yet).
It�s not a crime to be a dirty
old man, only a crime to do some of the things some
men do. Actually, I prefer the term �sexy,
soiled, senior citizen,� and I may be one some day if I
live long enough.