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Halcón Resources Corporatio Message Board

  • valueman60 valueman60 Dec 19, 2013 7:55 PM Flag

    Extremism to no end on this board.


    The one thing that has been consistent about this board is that extremism pervades it. Whether it be the one end like Green lightning who insists HK goes to zero, or the pumpers who still post that HK can double in a year ( talk about self deception!).
    The reality is that either extreme is not true.
    True , there are risks to bankruptcy in later years if certain conditions align for the negative, but not in the next year. And even by the most optimistic scenario, HK has had to cut capex for 2014 to make ends meet, despite the massive debt and equity dilution done in the last year and a half. They cannot hope to meet 2015 capex strictly from cash flow, they will either have to issue more debt and equity or cut capex even more drastically to fund 2015 capex and corporate SGA. So HK is hamstrung on the upside for the next couple of years. I am not selling because I am wealthy and can hold my small for me position, but I don't have to fool myself or others.
    Option market makers would not be willing to pay you 50 cents a share to buy $2 Jan 2016 puts or a $1 for the $3 jan 2016 puts from you if this was not true.
    If HK is going to make it, it is going to take several years , and even then the end game is more modest than what people post here. I would consider it a finet turnaround if they can get to $10 a share in 3-4 years, not so likely they can do it, but it is possible. Those who think it can happen in short time frame are just not in touch with reality.

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