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Genomic Health Inc. Message Board

  • xxqtony xxqtony Apr 19, 2011 4:34 PM Flag

    Too much insider selling

    I was thinking to get into this stock, but there were too many insiders who were selling at the 25~26 level.

    BTW, anybody knows the test case number GHDX does quarterly or annually? I mean how many tests they delivered in 2010.

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    • I go away on vacation and you want to quit.

      Look, you say you do serious fundamental analysis but you saw major insider selling and misinterpreted it. You see a buyout because another company was bought out. I agree we are both wasting time on this discussion because you are so uninformed that you do not qualify as an amateur.

      1. Nobody but an internet game player, qualifying as neither a trader or investor, buys a stock because he thinks a buyout is coming.

      2. GHDX, because it is tightly held and under accumulation by a hedge fund and other institutional investors is subject to short squeezes and other price spikes. These appear on screens of some plungers, like you, who think they see a buyout. Someday you will be right, but with a still unproven pipeline, no one is going to pay what they would have to and have the hedge fund sell based on a one product valuation. Maybe your analytical skills allow you to project revenues from a product that does not exist yet but that is why you are "special." People making buyout bids don't do that. They wait.

      3. The most important assets of a biotech company do not appear in its financial statements. It is the quality of its management. In the case of GHDX it is superb and if they get bought out they will leave as soon as they can. This argues for them staying until revenue streams have been established for colon et al tests.

      4. Its the science stupid. This company has the potential to be the gold standard addition to the treatment decisions of physicians for a number of different cancers. Each time they succeed, which increasingly looks likely, the value of the company increases geometrically. The key to making money with GHDX is to buy it and hold it. Yes, hard as that is for smart guys who think they can identify not only the buyout candidates, but the time frame in which the offer is coming, buy and hold. There are people on this board who bought at $8 and less and they are not through making money.

      5. Thus endeth the comments for those who want to understand why it is important to counter the nonsense that sometime appears on this board concerning the company and its stock. Sport, you have not put in the effort to understand the operations of 10b executive stock sales programs and in particular can not understand the very basic plain vanilla one used by executives who have been with the company for some time. This is your principal error. You seems to believe that the programs were just put in place and are some indication of selling because of a problem. In fact, they are the monetization of options granted to executives some time ago, still have substantial options positions left, and are neither unusual in size or frequency.

      6. Sorry to see you go, but don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

    • Apparently you don't know there's not much relationship between buyouts and insider transactions, particularly pre-scheduled ones. However why the insider pre-schedule such transaction in advance is totally different thing.

      I maybe don't know much investing, but I made big money on Clarient, which is in the same sector as GHDX and was bought out by GE. I was a bit late to do the comparison between CLRT and GXDX, which was bought out (actually announced to seek strategic alternatives) right before I hit the buy button.

      I do serious FA on GHDX and know it's a good candidate of buyout, but I don't figure out why a few different insiders were selling. If it had been only one person, I wouldn't care much, but there were a few. This discounts the premium I can predict if buyout is coming.

      I'll simply ignore you from now because you don't wash your mouth.

    • Another genius basher appears. Funny, the Form 4's are automatic sales.

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