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AmSurg Corp. Message Board

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  • jagad5 jagad5 Oct 17, 2001 1:37 PM Flag

    My projection is

    They beat me on sales by a little but net profit margins seem to be declining gradually. My new projection for the current quarter is

    REV - $55.7M
    NET - $4.3M
    EPS - $.22
    WMV - $29.50
    R^2 - .991

    Twelve month target remains $37. This morning's price drop creates a buying opportunity, though I have enough of my family jewels in here at the moment. I'm buying Copart and Cytc instead.


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    • JAG,

      Have you looked at DYII, just bought 50 bed hospital to convert to surgicenter with beds
      I presume.

      BUYRIGHT posting on this board is a big DYII
      booster. He is pissed at me but he might have a comment.


      • 1 Reply to pershing83
      • Pershing,
        I ran Dynaq through the same program last week. I get the following projections:
        REV - $14.6M
        NET - $3.5M
        EPS - $0.24
        WMV - $43.65
        R^2 - 0.91

        This suggests that Dynaq is currently much less risky than AMSG at their current price. The only score they get lower is the R^2. This is a measure of how well the model fits. AMSG scores a nearly perfect .99.

        Based on this mechanical analysis, I plan to investigate further. If the story holds up as well as the financials, I may take the money from shares I sold a few weeks ago and buy into DYII.


    • JAG,

      We have got to let some of the folks take some money out. I just can't afford another purchase right now.

      I think we will head back up next week. The trick is to get past $30. You may be right on the $37.


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