There's an article in the NYT today that says essentially what was in my previous post. If the dividend tax exclusion passes it will apply only to dividends paid out of earningson which the company has paid federal tax. You can read it at http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/10/business/10NORR.html You'll have to register, but it's free.
If not for the many mistakes I have made over the years I would not have learned a thing. I still make mistakes, but the ratio of good decision to poor decisions improves every year.
In the Canadian Oil Sands business I also own Canadian Oil Sands Trust. It trades in Toronto and OTC:BB (COSWF). The OTC shares are less liquid but I have no intention of trading them.
Saw your recent posts on Su bd. and agree with your line of thinking. Co.'s with the large long term reserves and expanding production are the sound long term way to "invest".
My many mistakes over the years include selling good solid co.s in haste when performance slowed periodically.
Once we have identified these co,s down markets are an opportunity.
Looking at cash from financing for the last 12mo for NBP, NBP sold $75.2m in stock, paid off $79.2m in debt and acquired $30.8m in other financing. I need to know what the "other" financing is for or from. In addition, how much of the capital expenses were for expansions or acquired assets needs to be known. In the worst case, NBP was short $26.8m in distribution coverage.
I don't follow oil services that much. I would look at nat gas drillers since nat gas is in a tighter supply/demand position and nat gas drilling was very slow last year and will need to be increased to offset further production declines.
I agree that TCLP has good coverage, but if they are getting cash from NBP who in turn is borrowing to pay the distro, the quality of the cash is suspect.
DO you look at oil service - seems to me that we need to go drill one Hell of a lot of wells to try and arrest the production declines in natural gas. The stock prices have come down even as gas inventories are depleting rapidly thereby causing commodity prices to explode upwards. Looks like a buying opportunity to me somewhere in here??
I own eca and cos for the reasons you mentioned. Also have xto for it's historically good management and growing low cost production and reserves.
Recently bought pwi as a play on oil and gas prices and the fact that although well hedged they used collars that let still benefit from the pricing. Added pgh because it is only slightly hedged. Both have high yields. Al
TCLP has the best coverage of any MLP that I am aware of. Over the last 4 qtrs they actually paid down $10 million in debt and have not sold any units.
I will take another look at NBP and get back to you.
I have some uneasiness with the political situation in Brazil, but I think I am being compensated for it by the current pricing of PBR shares. With that in mind, I would not make it my biggest position. I have money split between COS, SU, ECA, MRO and PBR. The common thread is that most of the production is Western Hemisphere.
COS and SU production is almost entirely Canadian so little political risk there. Their main risk is higher cost production (it is cheaper to pump froom the ground), but that is somewhat offset by not having to invest in finding new reserves.
Brazil has some political risk, but the current PE for PBR is <5x and production and reserves keep rising. I think the problems in Venezuela may give Lula reason to be more careful when dealing with PBR. The last thing Lula needs is to start a crisis.
I was lucky and bought into PBR at <$12/share. I bought into the panic regarding Lula's pending election victory.
I own ECA because of their strong Nat Gas production and large acreage to explore for more oil/gas. MRO for safe reserves and good yield. I am also evaluating CED for strong Canadian Oil/Gas production.