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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

  • strum_this strum_this Feb 1, 2012 10:32 AM Flag

    DCF Juggernaut

    Q4 '10 DCF = $571M; No one-time items were reported = $571M
    Q4 '10 retained DCF = $92M
    Q4 '10 Distribution Coverage = 1.2x

    Q3 '11 DCF = $856M minus $190M one-time asset sales = $666M
    Q3 '11 retained DCF = $541M minus $190M = $151M
    Q3 '11 Distribution Coverage = 1.3x after backing out one-time items.

    Q4 '11 DCF = $1409M
    Minus $593M one-time asset sales = $816M
    Q4 '11 retained DCF = $879M minus $593M = $286M
    Q4 '11 distribution coverage on the sustainable $816M number = 1.5x after backing out one-time items.

    At Q4 2011, the Q/Q DCF growth rate = 22%.
    YOY DCF growth rate = 43%

    Q/Q retained DCF growth rate = 89%
    YOY retained DCF growth rate = 210%

    The actual Q/Q distribution growth rate has been about 1.3%
    The actual YOY distribution growth rate has been about 5.2%

    I conclude that It would be safe to increase the distribution growth rate from 5% to ???. KMP says they are looking at 8% distribution growth for 2012.

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    • artist_formerly_known_as_pooch artist_formerly_known_as_pooch Feb 1, 2012 10:50 AM Flag

      I think the buyouts of Teppco, DEP, and EPE have obscured the real growth going on here as your chart indicates. Unit count going up to absorb these 3 in recent years. Not that these were bad buys. quite the contrary. Retained DCF being used to fund organic projects further kept EPD under the radar.

      we should see the fruits of this growth in 2012.

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