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Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Message Board

  • misskellyfitz misskellyfitz Apr 28, 2013 9:23 AM Flag

    Over Lay Your 2011 Corn and Ethanol price Charts With 2013,& You Will See Something BETTER than 2011

    I Will Send You the Link Jack

    They Are Making More $ than 2011,when they Went to $1.80

    Except This Time They Own 82% Of Earnings,Instead Of 28%

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    • The Negatives Don't Over Come THIS

      Then we can get a gross operating Margin

      Costs:

      $0.09 Natural gas
      $0.04 Enzymes
      $0.03 Yeast
      $0.03 Electricity
      $0.08 Denaturants
      $0.30 Other costs
      ....................................................................
      $0.57 per gallon * 2.8 = $1.596 per bushel
      ....................................................................

      $4.4895 Positive crush spread per bushel
      $1.5960 Operating costs per bushel
      ....................................................................
      $2.8935 Gross Operating Margin per bushel

      At Capasity Production 3 plants they use 14,285,714 bushels per Quarter

      $2.8935 * 14,285,714 = $41,335,713 per Quarter =$13,778,571 per month

      Calculation:

      Ethanol yield per bushel 2.8 // later we also (later is in Q2-13) can count with Corn Oil value per bushel

      $7.490 = A. Ethanol earnings per bushel of corn
      $1.722 = B. D6 RIN earnings per bushel of corn
      $1.730 = C. Co product earnings per bushel of corn
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………….
      $10.942 = Earnings per bushel of corn
      $6.4525 = Corn cost per bushel of corn
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………….
      $4.4895 = Positive corn crush a bushel

    • "Except This Time They Own 82% Of Earnings,Instead Of 28%"

      But how many shares and warrants have been issued since 2011?
      And how much more debt is there now? I am not going to look it up, but
      if you own shares, you should. Just don't tell what is good without
      telling the bad.

      Biff

      • 1 Reply to biff_smith1
      • The good:

        Margins back to 2011 level.
        Production costs decreased.
        PE ownership at 82%
        Improved balance sheet, financing pushed to 2016
        Relativity low market cap of 49m

        The bad:

        Increased amount of outstanding shares to150m
        Outstanding warrants that will delay any up trend
        Nasdaq compliance problem that will result in an r/s if stock is not over 1.00 by june 3rd
        Lackluster management

        That about covers it Biff?

 
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